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A few sites I've stumbled across recently....
Entropic manSuggest that you start a discussion thread on Arab/oil politics
When Sheikh Yamani said the oil age would end in 30 years he also said that fuel cell cars would be in use by 2010 cutting petrol use by 100%. Still waiting. What percentage of cars are fuel cell today? Most of the vehicles being bought in the next 5-10 years will be petrol/diesel and will be the fleet in use come 2030.
"Then you have the cell-fuel cars. This is coming before the end of the decade and will cut gasoline consumption by almost 100 per cent. "
It doesn't add up
In the short term the Saudis are maximising oil production while keeping the price low. This floods the market and minimises Iran's oil income.
Meanwhile Saudi Arabia has deliberately accumulated large financial reserves which allow it to function and arm despite its reduced income. From both a tactical and strategic viewpoint the Saudis are running rings round Iran.
A basic course on the politics of the Arabian Gulf might come in handy. At the moment, the Saudis and Iranians are engaged in several proxy wars in the region (Syria, Iraq,Yemen). Oil revenue is an important determinant of how much funding they can provide to those enterprises. With the Iranians now re-admitted to the fold as oil producers, the Saudis need to minimise the cash the Iranians can deploy on arms. You need to look through the smoke and mirrors.
We will know which world view is right when 2030 rolls round.
Personally I would bet on Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani.He spotted this situation way ahead of the rest of us. His country has a contingency plan in place and the accumulated financial reserves to carry it through.
Entropic man Which is it?
“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”― John Kenneth Galbraith
“Thirty years from now there will be a huge amount of oil – and no buyers. Oil will be left in the ground. The Stone Age came to an end, not because we had a lack of stones, and the oil age will come to an end not because we have a lack of oil.”This is more than predatory pricing.
This is more than predatory pricing.
Perhaps you only like predictions which match your view of life, theuniverse and everything?
The price of home heating oil is about half what it was 2 years ago. I won't need to worry about a cold winter, I will just produce more CO2. I hope the price stays low, what with all this global cooling on the way.
It is a bit comical that anyone could think that the end of fossil-fuel use is nigh. Sorry, but if you look around you, there is NOTHING that you can see that is not there, directly or indirectly, by fossil fuels. That we can cut that link so readily is, quite obviously, not going to happen. What makes it even more laughable is that the opponents of fossil-fuels quite happily use it with totally unrestricted gusto, as if they will stop using it when they have been forced to, along with everyone else does. They seem unable to realise that, to be taken seriously, they have to put their money where their mouths are – stop driving that car, stop taking the bus, stop travelling by plane, stop cooling your house, turn off the fridge – indeed, stop the use of all commonly-accepted amenities of modern life, including the internet. As none of them do this, despite their insistence that all others do so, why do they think that they are the only ones who are correct, and all who do not agree with them are idiots?
My forecast is that China, India and Russia won't declare their coal, gas and oil, stranded.
Rotational fine structure
“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” ― John Kenneth Galbraith
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