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Wednesday
Jun082011

Confirmation bias

This is a guest post by Matt Ridley

Dan Gardner’s superb book `Future Babble’ examines why expert predictions so frequently fail, and why we believe them anyway. I strongly recommend it. Gardner devotes very little of the book to climate change, and makes clear that he does not want to be thought too sceptical about it. This is standard procedure in the world of non-fiction these days: Tim Harford in Adapt likewise avoids pursuing the logic of his argument as far into the climate debate as he might. You can, of course, kiss good bye to good reviews, or even reviews, if you stray too far from the true faith on this subject these days. Even lukewarmers like me regularly get called `deniers’.

Click to read more ...

Tuesday
Jun072011

In the beginning

H/T SBC

Monday
Jun062011

Conflicted climatologists

Pielke Jnr looks at the dilemma facing the IPCC - should its new policy on conflicts of interest apply to participants in the upcoming Fifth Assessment Report?

The challenge faced by the IPCC is significant. Under the adopted policy it is inconceivable that its current chairman, Rajendra Pachauri, could continue to serve.  Presumably, other participants would also fail to meet the high standards of the new policy.  This would mean major change in the organization.

Monday
Jun062011

Not so Goot

Aynsley Kellow posted these remarks in the comments on the posting on Goot's paper on the climate consensus. I thought they were important enough to bring upstairs as a header post.

I found it difficult to read this piece, especially because the matter of how many climate scientists can dance in agreement on the head of a pin is irrelevant to any argument about climate science. Since Galileo, the fallacy of argumentum ad populum has been well established, and it is rather surprising that Murray would be engaged to explore whether the fallacy holds in this particular case.

Click to read more ...

Monday
Jun062011

Koutsoyiannis 2011

This is a guest post by Doug Keenan.

Two months ago, I published an op-ed piece in The Wall Street Journal. The piece discussed the record of global temperatures, illustrated in the figure.

Click to read more ...

Sunday
Jun052011

It takes a village

I chanced upon the (unrevised) transcript of an evidence session in front of the House of Lords Science and Technology Committee on the subject of nuclear power.

I found myself with a vague feeling of unease having read it. This may have been something to do with the fact that the session involved evidence from Sir John Beddington, who appears to have coordinated the Climategate whitewashes. He was speaking to, among others, Lord Oxburgh, the head of one of the whitewashes in question, and Lord Willis, who headed another.

Sunday
Jun052011

Suing academics

Mike Kelly has a letter in his hometown newspaper. This appears to be a response to a critique of some kind and makes some interesting points.

Can I plead for temperate language in this debate as trillions of dollars are at risk of being misinvested?

I am involved in another area of controversy, namely nanotechnology, and when you add in controversies in biomedicine, there is enough around to suggest that the scientific process is being corrupted, and is in need of reining in. You will see my views on this when the Royal Society publishes the evidence it receives in its study of ‘Science as a Public Enterprise‘.

Engineers take legal liability for their work, and can be sued if they are wrong. This should also apply more widely to those who pronounce in the public domain on matters of policy. This would then confine statements to a more measured and nuanced standard.

(H/T Andyscrase)

Sunday
Jun052011

Another Beddington inquiry

Christopher Booker reports on an official inquiry into the dangers of white asbestos - a subject on which CB has been writing for many years.

An all-too-familiar trick when the establishment faces awkward questions on some controversial matter is to set up a committee packed with people who can be relied on to avoid the real points at issue and come up with the answer it wants. The Climategate inquiries were all examples of this technique. Another was the recent inquiry, headed by the Government’s chief scientific adviser, Sir John Beddington, into the claim that thousands of people die every year from exposure to white asbestos.

I wonder if CB realises just how central Sir John was to the Climategate whitewashes?

(H/T Matthu)

 

Saturday
Jun042011

The truth will out

Updated on Jun 4, 2011 by Registered CommenterBishop Hill

Phelim McAleer has an interesting post about the movie Gasland, in which residents of a US town are famously shown igniting their tap water.  The insinuation is that this is something to do with fracking activitiy in the shales thousands of feet below the ground.

Click to read more ...

Saturday
Jun042011

Goot paper on consensus

Murray Goot of Macquarie University reviews papers on the scientific "consensus" on climate change. This is a reasonably balanced piece and not just because it mentions The Hockey Stick Illusion a couple of times.

In essence Goot's papers looks at the Oreskes and Anderegg papers as well as considering the polls of climatological opinion run by von Storch and Bray and concludes that there is a consensus that the majority of recent warming is down to CO2.

Click to read more ...

Friday
Jun032011

RS "townhall meeting" on openness

Tickets are now available (free) for the Royal Society's Townhall Meeting on openness in science featuring Paul Nurse and Geoffrey Boulton.

This will be at the Southbank Centre in London on 8 June at 2:30pm.

Friday
Jun032011

That German report

H/T to Patagon for pointing us to an English translation of the WGBU report and for making these excerpts from it.

Sustainable strategies and concepts must be developed for this in order to embed sustainable global development in transnational democratic structures, to formulate answers to the 21st century questions regarding global equity and distribution of resources, and, not least, to be able to claim world-wide legitimacy.

Click to read more ...

Friday
Jun032011

Milking it

H/T Decaux for this story from the Scotsman:

SCOTLAND'S oldest university is hoping to become the first higher education institution in the country to generate all its power through its own wind farm.

After a three-year investigation and scientific study of wind levels in Fife, St Andrews University yesterday submitted an application for planning permission for the farm, which would be built on farmland six miles from the town.

...The university sees the proposal as a key part of its strategy to offset what it described as the "punitive" national costs of energy.

Still more feed-in-tariffs you and I have to pay for.

Friday
Jun032011

Advice to a science minister

A few days ago we looked at Julia Slingo's climate change paper, which she circulated in the wake of Climategate. A reader recently pointed me to this article in the journal Science and Public Affairs - a publication of the British Association for the Advancement of Science (as the BSA was called at that time). It's by William Waldegrave, a science minister in the last Conservative government in the UK, and is entitled "When scientists advise politicians - how to avoid the pitfalls".

Click to read more ...

Thursday
Jun022011

Ecocide - Josh 101

Sounds daft? I can think of a good example...


More cartoons by Josh here