Bishop Hill Marshall islands typhoon: weather not climate
Jul 4, 2015 Climate: WG2 In my Twitter timeline come a couple of tweets from Tony de Brum Foreign Minister of the Marshall Islands, which is currently in the middle of a typhoon:
Just landed home. Majuro like a war zone. Roofs torn off, huge blackout, ships ashore. On alert for more tonight.
Today in Majuro. My family home battered by the beginnings of yet another cyclone. Climate change has arrived. MinTdB
Perhaps Mr de Brum might like to consider this analysis of typhoons in the Marshall islands.
On June 30th, 1905 a strong typhoon passed over the southern Marshall Islands, severely affecting Nadikdik (Knox), Mile, Arno, Majuro and Jaluit Atolls...Over 227 Marshallese lost their lives on that day on the affected atolls of the Marshall Islands...approximately 90 other people died in the following months due to starvation.
The typhoon of 1918 was devastating for Majuro Atoll. A storm surge washed across the entire southern part of the atoll flooding an area over 20 miles in length. The wave impact was not sufficient to reduce the entire island to the bare reef platform, but powerful enough to breach the narrow island in many locations in the south-eastern corner of the atoll.
An analysis of the historic record of typhoons in the Marshall Islands...suggest[s] that typhoons are 2.6 times more likely to occur during ENSO years, with a 71% chance of a typhoon or severe tropical storm striking during an ENSO year, and only a 26% chance of one happening during a non-ENSO year.
Bishop Hill
Take a look at this long, long piece by CNN's John Sutter:
Kiribati, the Maldives, the Marshall Islands.
All of these barely peek out over the surface of the ocean.
And all of them literally could be wiped off the map.
That's not an immediate prospect -- definitely not five years or 10. Even 20. But it could happen within our lifetimes, and certainly within the next generation's.
The article focuses on the Marshall Islands. Fortunately for us, Kench and Webb have now expanded their analysis of land areas of Pacific atolls to include the Marshalls and they have found that, like the other islands they have looked it, they have been quite stable, or even expanding. In fact, they show that the islands first appeared during a phase of rapid sea-level rise!
The results also imply [Marshall Island] Jabat should remain stable in the face of projected sea level rise over the next century.
See also these comments in New Scientist:
There is presently no evidence that these islands are going to sink," says Virginie Duvat of the University of La Rochelle in France. She says that she and other researchers are trying to fight the widespread misconception that sea level rise will mean the end for atolls.
Reader Comments (46)
Why let the facts spoil a good alarmist tweet? The difference between those typhoons and this one is that the intervening decades of fossil fuel driven economic and technological growth means the rest of the world knows about weather disasters immediately and has the capacity to respond with aid quickly if needed.
Climate change has arrived indeed, in the shape of a minister of state desperate to milk money out of it
So he prefers to fly, rather than travel by canoe? Very sensible. Amazing what fossil fuelled propulsion can do for people in remote locations. Or perhaps he would prefer the nation's supporting benefactor (the US government) to buy him a solar plane?
In fact he was on his way back from a climate conference! Go figure.
I think this article from way back in 2010 is brilliant at explaining why coral islands if left to their own devices will always stay just above sea level:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/27/floating-islands/
The rich and powerful are indeed different, they feel the climate; leaving the Hopi pollo I to feel the weather
Martin says: “ coral islands if left to their own devices”
And there's the rub. When the surface is disrupted and covered with runways, resorts, fuel tanks, and other assorted accoutrements of modern civilization – changes can be expected. Under such circumstances it seems a bit odd that the surface area of many Pacific atolls has been expanding. Perhaps the critters** have developed a liking for the detritus of the foreign visitors and the importations of the stuff needed to service this hoard.
**
http://microbewiki.kenyon.edu/index.php/Microalgal_symbionts:_The_coral-dinoflagellate_relationship
Tony de Brum is an experienced 'grant fisherman'.
A year ago, Aunty helpfully published an article "Climate change 'helps seas disturb Japanese war dead"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27742957
Sadly, that article failed to mention information that the BBC uncovered “…. the skeletons were discovered ……. by a resident digging for coral gravel on the beach at the base of the local landfill. The remains were between 2cm from the surface and 50cm.”
"Hopi pollo" Jumping chicken?
davidchappell @3:07
Oi larfed.at that
It is of massive importance to current and future inhabitants of the Marshall Islands, that they get a major airport out of the Climate Change/Sea Level Rise/Ocean Acidification Scam, before the rest of the world wakes up, and realises that these remote islands are in no danger at all.
All they seek is parity with places like the Seychelles, to be described as a tropical island paradise, rather than a bunch of remote islands.
With an international airport, beautiful areas of untainted rainforest, basking in the glory of tribal rituals and traditions, can be turned into 5* hotel conference centres, bringing secure financial futures, for those privileged few, willing and able to take advantage. For the rest, there will be all sorts of work, in bars and restaurants, and other night life support industries.
With these sort of facilities on offer to climate scientists and journalists, all with very generous expense accounts, so kindly paid for by taxpayers around the world, the Marshall Islanders could become the best indigenous population had by all, to support a few wealthy individuals, in their political quest.
All they need is loads of money, to pour concrete over reef systems, chainsaws to cut down trees, docks to discharge aviation fuel, deep gullies beneath the sea to throw rubbish into, sewage pipes long enough to prevent human waste washing up on the beaches, and fossil fuelled electricty generators to power it all, night and day, whatever the weather.
It is not much to ask for, in return for voting in agreement with climate scientists, at every International Conference they get paid to fly to, is it?
Could it not be that just one particular spot hat an unlucky hit, rather than a big area
"Typhoon alert lifted, but Majuro still battered
... the country's main atoll of Majuro is still counting the cost of damage done by rough seas and high winds."
Radio New Zealand report 9 hours ago (wind alert was 20 hours ago)
"People who fish and run boats here are saying it's the worst westerly that they've seen ever to hit the lagoon. It was just a cauldron of high winds and waves, and lots of boats broke loose from their moorings and up on the beach or on to reefs, and heavy damage along the shoreline from waves."
BTW - I am in KK 2,500 miles directly west and we have got the tail end of some storm system (tropical storm Linfa ?), in the last 24 hours we have had 3x 10 minute super winds followed by heavy rain.
stewgreen, obviously srong basts of warm air only occurred after Mann fabricated the Hockey Stick.
Hang on it was a tropical depression tracking perhaps a couple of hundred miles north of Majuro turning to a tropical storm way past the Marshall Islands. But don't you expect it when you live in the tropics?
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/index_.html
http://www.state.gov/j/inl/rls/nrcrpt/2014/supplemental/227936.htm
If only Climate Change could wiped away the Marshall Islands reputation as a Money Laundering Tax Haven.
"my house was battered by the beginings of YET ANOTHER CYCLONE"
But he did not report DAMAGE. Could it be that his house was built to a standard anticipating , from past experience, exactly the events that have transpired.
"climate change has arrives", and bugger me its no different from what we have had before!
Weather superstition has been re-introduced and deeply imbedded into hoi polloi. The climate has indeed changed.
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Heh, what do indigean Arizonian fowl have to do with it? Well, one can dissect their intestines, or observe their flights, or attempts at such. Perhaps close observation of pecking order?
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The sea still comes halfway up a coral atoll.
[What, me plagiarize?]
According to the weather forecast on Wales Today (courtesy of the MO) yesterday evening, there should have been severe storms in the Marches - the reality one clap of thunder, 3mm of rain and a bit of wind. On the other Mrs S, down the caravan on the Isle of Sheppey was expecting a quiet night (according of the MO, again) and got an all-night electric storm instead.
Maybe the likes of Betts and Slingo at the Muppet Office should devote a bit more of their time and their alleged expertise to producing more accurate predictions of UK weather, rather than guesses on future global climate.
Then there is this re weather in July
http://joannenova.com.au/2015/07/history-rewritten-bom-wrong-on-first-july-cyclone-forgets-1935-1954-1962/
Salopian, you are being a bit unfair on the Mop and Bucket Office, and I can confirm there was rain in mid Wales last night.
The 5 day forecasts have got better, it is now the climate forecasts that deserve maximum contempt, as working hand in hand with top journalists from the BBC and Grauniad, they have yet to reach a conclusion that was right. They appear to suffer from right/left , right/wrong confirmation bias confusion, and therefore presume that everything right is wrong, and what is left, must be right. An easy mistake for those not allowed to think at work.
When he gets the time, perhaps Mr de Brum, might care to Google "Hurricane in Galveston, early 1900's".
This wasn't AGM either.
Marshall Islands, non traditional settlement patterns and typhoon hazard .... Spennemann 1998 is worth googling as no journalists have.
Major typhoons 1905 1918
Exceptional high tides 1979, 1989, 1990, 1991
The population has grown dramatically, mainly spreading onto land considered high risk, with inadequate construction materials, the cheapest land being nearest the sea where it has no agricultural value
The island are at no more physical risk from storms, but the death toll, when the next "big one" happens will be much higher.
A bit like building houses in the UK on flood plains. A man made disaster waiting to happen, that will be blamed on Global Warming
And what exactly is the value of remote atolls that are to be lost?
Use google earth, or equivalent, and examine Malé, Maldives. 150,000 people packed into a square mile. What is there about THIS square mile that it holds so many people, and why couldn't a square mile on the Indian mainland have equal, or even higher, value? If Malé is lost, it can be replaced for virtually nothing.
"The 5 day forecasts have got better .........."
Jul 4, 2015 at 10:37 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie
Well they bloody well need to. Actually, I think they are a load of cr@p, a d have to be continually updated. But .memories are very short when it comes to weather.
ABC in Australia has the report (and the Twitter quote)
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-04/chaotic-unseasonal-storms-strike-marshall-islands-and-guam/6595124
A cyclone at this time of year IS unseasonal, but not unknown. Our own, our very own, Julian Heming of the Met Office thinks that "There are some indications climate change is increasing the peak intensity of tropical cyclones" - what indications are they, Julian? He added "it was too early to say whether they were getting more frequent" when talking about Cyclone Pam, which struck Vanuatu, Kiribati and the Solomon Islands in March this year.
http://www.rtcc.org/2015/03/13/tropical-cyclone-pam-hits-vanuatu-capital/
Australia's BOM records tropical cyclones in the central and southwest Pacific, and in a report produced last year (otherwise full of doom and gloom over "climate change", no link, sorry), said that there was no obvious trend in the frequency of tropical cyclones, if anything a slight decline, and no trend in strength.
Julian is a "tropical prediction scientist" apparently, who "works on the prediction of tropical cyclones worldwide" -
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/people/julian-heming
Didya predict this latest one, Julian? Oh - sorry, he doesn't predict 'em, he "works on" prediction.
My simple mind tells me that if he is able to predict cyclones, then he should know whether they were getting stronger, or more frequent, and that the only indication of either is the results of simple statistical analysis.
John Constable, during Wimbledon Week, the weather forecast is critical. The groundsmen need to get the covers on, and the BBC need to know when to get Cliff Richard to sing.
This is a major advantage of more accurate weather forecasting, and provides an insight as to why there is now a roof over centre court
I thought the roof was to keep the falcons out.
Oh yes, thanks for the Spennemann connection, an interesting read golf charlie.
Monthly sea level for the Marshall Islands going back to 1992 can be seen here: http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO70052/IDO70052SLI.shtml
The whole AOSIS (Alliance of Small Island States) claims were fired up by Greenpeace some years ago. As with everything climate there has been quite some dishonesty.
Tuvalu is another poster boy for the campaign but during the 1997/1998 El Niño, sea level fell 35 mm below average, the trend actually went negative, and remained so for the next three years. Recovery from that was then claimed as increasing sea level at a deceptive figure of 5 mm per annum.
Journalists are invited there for "King Tide" events, when it can be guaranteed to find locals paddling around their homes.
The late John Daly's site is still online and has a piece on the difficulties associated with satellite measurement of sea level: http://www.john-daly.com/altimetry/topex.htm
Observations became available for the first time from the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite in 1992, and it was claimed it could measure global sea level to millimeter accuracy. The rate of increase suspiciously went up in one fell swoop on their introduction, to double that of the tide gauges.
John Daly:
“The T/P satellite cannot measure sea level when there is any land within the footprint because T/P cannot tell land echoes from sea echoes and gives a false result.
This means that all sea areas within 3 to 5 kilometres of continental coasts, islands, even atolls, are not covered. Also not covered is all oceanic area north of 66°N or south of 66°S, due to the angled track of the satellite. This results in the Arctic Ocean and the high-latitude part of the North Atlantic being excluded. Also excluded is much of the oceanic area surrounding Antarctica."
Whilst I believe Topex has been superceded, the drum beat is still the same:
http://www.rtcc.org/2015/03/27/satellite-data-indicates-sea-levels-rising-faster-than-expected/
@HaroldW
"The sea still comes halfway up a coral atoll."
Noted :)
Jack Hughes --
Colton said that "imitation is the sincerest of flattery." So consider yourself flattered. Sincerely.
GC Jul 4, 2015 at 10:37 PM: Two dead and two injured by lightning strikes in the Brecons today. No warnings from the Muppet Office - so much for their "better forecasts", Maybe they need to get a new bit of seaweed?
Not so long ago you couldn't move on Comment is Free for earnest greenie-types correcting any mention of a cold snap not being in common with 'global warming' with an indignant 'weather is not climate - schoolboy error!'.
Today? Their meme has crashed so far THEY are the ones claiming any 'extreme' weather event is proof, *Proof, I say!* that 'climate change has arrived'.
Truly, they have lost the plot, the argument and their marbles.
PS I went to the Marshall Islands 10 years ago - including Majuro and Bikini Atoll. We dived the USS carrier Sarratoga. A fantastic experience.
Salopian, seen that on the news. Very sad. I was about 10 miles away, and no rain at about 11:30 on my way back to the M4. Very heavy rain thereafter I gather.
"...No warnings from the Muppet Office - so much for their "better forecasts", Maybe they need to get a new bit of seaweed?" --Salopian
Or a new mask and juju stick.
"...No warnings from the Muppet Office - so much for their "better forecasts", Maybe they need to get a new bit of seaweed?" --Salopian
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/rainfall-radar#?map=Lightning&fcTime=1436096700&zoom=5&lon=4.12&lat=53.28
The Muppet Office puts out real time lightning info - why do you need a warning?
Look for yourself if you see towering cumulus clouds and you're going up a mountain. If you don't know what towering cumulus clouds are, you'll be heading for a Darwin Award.
"Climate change" is now the universal excuse for negligent, lazy and ineffective government leaders.
@ Billy 1:07 am: "If you don't know what towering cumulus clouds are, you'll be heading for a Darwin Award."
Bugger all use spotting clouds once you've got up there, and if you think you can get internet connection on top of the Brecons then you are seriously disillusioned. The whole point of forecasting weather warnings in areas such as the Brecons is supposed to prevent walkers from putting themselves at risk, and consequently putting SAR teams at risk having to sort out the mess.
Or do you simply not understand the differences between forecasts, warnings and 'real time info'?
Sorry, Salopian, but I have to agree with Billy Liar: you are responsible for your own safety. You may call on others for assistance – as, in this case, viewing the weather forecast – but you cannot then blame the others should things go wrong, particularly with a weather forecast. A weather forecast has to be a general thing, relating to what is likely to occur over a given region; it certainly cannot tell you whether or not the mountain you wish to climb will be affected by something as localised as a storm. Anyone with a modicum of sense would have looked at the forecast, seen that thunderstorms were a strong possibility in South Wales (yes, it was on the forecast I saw, on Breakfast), and would have either planned for the eventuality (i.e. kept a wary eye out for developing towering cumulus clouds, with plans for appropriate action if seen) or amended their walk to the valleys. While I have every sympathy for the relatives, these four certainly deserve consideration for Darwin Awards.
Cheshirered: that is something that I covered in Martin A’s discussion Does Climate Science Exists? AGWistas are now clutching at straws, as their precious beliefs crumble around them. To conflate and paraphrase my comments: they have a fear of the unknown such that they need to have factors in otherwise chaotic systems which they can have some perceived control over. CO2 has been determined as the only factor which we might be able to influence; hence, they are determined that this is the principle (if not ONLY) factor. As has happened in science throughout history, having come up with an explanation, people do their damnedest to hold onto it, hence the increasingly bizarre contortions that we are seeing, both amongst the so-called experts, and their more numerous minions and acolytes, with the evidence and theories of the climate. As the shaky ground upon which they built their shabby castle begins to crumble, the “cure” for ACC needs to be addressed with increasing urgency. Naturally, they are aware that they can make little difference by their own personal sacrifices (no matter how many they claim to be – and they certainly do claim numerical superiority over sceptics, who are but a dwindling bunch of “deniers”), so are prepared to insist everyone else proceeds down their path before they make any commitment to follow.
you can image that when the idea of 100 billion a year of 'guilt cash ' came up there where those whose first reaction was to think where they could get a bigger bucket from to load all the cash into . Combine this with the way 'climate doom' could be used to blame all their political mistakes and lies on, and you can certainly see way it is so attractive.
But oddly the idea is 'useful ' even before the economy down turn this figure made no sense , afterwards it looks positively mad. Therefore by keeping this part of the 'demand package ' , along with the other made ideas , actually makes action less not more likley. Like we often see they totally fail to understand it is the 'overselling ' that holds them back, for so sure are they that their message is a unquestionable prefect truth, they cannot understand how others cannot feel the same way and do not buy into the alarmist claims .
Sorry RR, but you are incorrect:
1) The MO did not issue a severe weather warning for the Brecon Beacons National Park yesterday,
2) According to local witnesses (including two local MRT's who were training on Corn Du and Cribyn), the storm developed over a matter of minutes, there was no chance for them "to have kept a wary eye out for developing towering cumulus clouds" - the visibility on Pen Y Fan was down to 500 metres by the time the storm started.
Your comment that "these four certainly deserve consideration for Darwin Awards.", is at the very least distasteful and offensive, and, by your logic, should also apply to the two MRTs and Royal Marine Cadets who were exercising in the area.
Jul 6, 2015 at 6:51 PM | Salopian
The storm may have 'developed over a matter of minutes' but if the visibility was 'down to 500m' you are obviously in cloud.
If you are in cloud on a hot summer's day on a mountain you are at risk.