Wednesday
Dec012010
by 
Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill HSI sightings
Dec 1, 2010 Climate: HSI A couple of recent sightings of the Hockey Stick Illusion.
First there's Reformatorisch Dagblad, a Dutch newspaper, which has an article on the MWP, based largely on HSI. Original here, machine translation here. This appears to be the first of a two-part feature.
Then from South Africa, there's this article in Business Day looking at the year since Climategate and mentioning the Hal Lewis resignation, and with it HSI. The book is apparently "essential reading for understanding the climate scam".
Reader Comments (37)
Great to see your brilliant book receive further acclamation Your Grace.
Hopefully, even if it is slowly, things will change.
THE TRUTH IS OUT THERE.
Peter Walsh
"THE TRUTH IS OUT THERE."
Peter Walsh
Hur hur.
Men in tights have same crackpot conspiracy mindset as the spooky one off the X Files. What a surprise.
Writing in capitals too - the written equivalent of shouting and considered rude. I'll give you a clue. It's generally the preserve of the barmy, the obnoxious and those that lack the language skills to emphsise through words alone.
Unlike too many "writers" you have a very pleasant writing style that is informative and to the point while still explaining the essence of the issue.
In short, you are a damn fine writer. That counts.
I guess ZDB got her motorcycle shoveled out. How's the weather in Truro, ZDB? Why didn't you go to Cancun? Oh, I forgot, the airports were snowed in.
"Essential reading for understanding the climate scam".
Just so. Should be in the delegate pack at the Cancun beanfeast.
A bit off topic, but Michael Gallagher, the Donegal postman who predicted last year's rotten weather has announced that this winter is going to be worse.
Postman delivers his chilling verdict
Laugh at him if you want, but he has been doing a whole lot better than both the ROI Met and UK Met.
I might add I saw similar animal behavior here in California, so -- maybe we don't need all those fancy computer models filled with synthetic data when all we need to do is watch the critters.
Hi zdb didn't put it in capitals as you don't like them. Someone said you were getting a trashing on the Daily Mail, bit of a comedown for someone with your language skills.
Hi zdb didn't put it in capitals as you don't like them. Someone said you were getting a trashing on the Daily Mail, bit of a comedown for someone with your language skills.
BabelFish translation leaves something to be desired....
"To the onderbouwing of the current temperature increase still it and an other one have something up, as Stick Illusion (2010, ISBN 9781906768355) becomes clear of the British journalist Andrew Montford from the book The hockey. He discusses the notorious hockeystickgrafiek, which masters the climate discussion for years in its book."
ZDB, you are so relentlessly unpleasant, even when posting as 'Fred'.
Why?
"ZDB, you are so relentlessly unpleasant, even when posting as 'Fred'.
Why?"
Dec 1, 2010 at 4:03 PM | JerryM
Posting as Fred? What on Earth are you talking about?
Jerry M
To be fair, I had a chat with 'Fred' about the way GISTEMP generates its estimate for the high Arctic and I didn't get the impression that 'he' was ZDB. Nor do I get the impression that ZDB feels the need to assume further pseudonyms (at least not on this blog).
I will spot it eventually if she does.
@Don Pablo
So did Paul the psychic Octopus during the last World Cup. Once the postman surpasses Paul's record, then it is time to pay attention.
sHx
Once the postman surpasses Paul's record, then it is time to pay attention.
Basically you are comparing apples and oranges, or perhaps snowballs and footballs.
I wasn't aware that the octopus did weather forecasts, nor that that the postman did world cup predictions. My point is the postman is doing much better than the met. And so far, the postman has been right two years in a row regarding extreme weather. If you go back several years, he also predicted relatively mild winters, giving him a pretty good record.
And what did we get from the Climate Scientists? Why the prediction that our children will never see snow in their back yard.
Don P: "And what did we get from the Climate Scientists? Why the prediction that our children will never see snow in their back yard."
Don, it's not for the reason you thought. It will be because they won't be able to afford a back yard after they get through "leveling" us.
Yer Grace, along with these sitings there have been a couple of sitings of the snowfall illusion.
"Snowfall disrupts northern Europe" http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/
Are delusions contagious?
To add to Don Pablo's slightly OT post (Dec 1, 2010 at 2:57 PM), in the top story on the Beeb (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11883714) about the terrible weather conditions (snow, ice, aarrgghh), there's a lovely photo of a snow-covered sheep in the middle of the report, with the highly ridiculous caption:
"The early cold spell has taken everyone by surprise".
Words fail me ...
ZEDS DEAD BEAT.
SOME TIME BACK, I TOLD YOU TO GO BACK TO YOUR RAT HOLE IN TRURO.
PLEASE OBLIGE.
Dec 1, 2010 at 5:33 PM | RETEPHSLAW
Delightful manners you've got there Peter. Do you kiss your mother with that tongue?
Guys,
Dont feed the troll.
@BBD
"I will spot it eventually if she does"
Actually I thought I *had* spotted it ... lots of linguistic & stylistic similarities, with what looked to me like only a marginal attempt to disguise a secondary alias.
But maybe you are right, and it's simply that they are both working from the same sad Trolling 101 handbook.
In any event I allowed a deflection so - predictably - my question went unanswered.
Where do the 'warmists' come from?
Bishop Hill had 4 Sceptic alerts today courtesy of the Campaign Against Climate Change - Delingpole only got 1 !
http://www.campaigncc.org/node/384
Climate Change sceptic blog alertsWednesday,
1 December, 2010 15:29
From: "Campaign against Climate Change aggregator" <xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Add sender to Contacts
To: xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Change sceptic blog alerts
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
•Bishop Hill: HSI sightings
•Bishop Hill: Competing interest?
•Bishop Hill: Eco-schools
•James Delingpole: Ceci n’est pas un bonhomme de neige!
•Bishop Hill: Quote of the day
--------------------------------
http://www.realclimategate.org/2010/11/bishop-hill-targeted-sceptic-alerts/ (shameless plug !)
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2010/11/29/cacc-notices-bishop.html
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2010/4/19/skeptic-alerts.html
I recognize the author of the Business Day article, Andrew Kenny, from my days in South Africa (over 10 years ago). He's been a skeptic from the beginning, and in most subjects he has the non-PC and non-mainstream position - whether on climate change, or the power of unions in South Africa, etc. The fact that Business Day published an article by him does not necessarily mean that that's their editorial policy - Kenny is a sort of "official non-mainstream writer".
Don Pablo, have you read Paul's Wikipedia page? His life, his career, his powers of prediction, his ambassadorship for England, and his untimely death?
I am struggling to keep a straight face here. Do you know how absurd, how anti-scientific it is to even entertain the idea that a postman doing daily delivery rounds is better equipped to make weather predictions than a meteorologist studying weather patterns?
I am sorry but such psuedo-scientific nonsense, if allowed to go unchallenged, will make a laughing stock out of this blog, its fans and commenters.
FYI, Bishop predicted the current cold weather a week earlier than the good postman. See, this thread:
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2010/11/5/waxwing-irruption.html
Actually, to be more precise, Bishop didn't make any predictions about weather at all. All he did was note the high number and earlier arrival of waxwings and that this was "traditionally taken as evidence of an impending cold winter". That's how responsible people with little evidence talk about possible future eventualities.
This cold winter has been predicted for some time, I had the central heating tank fillled up in Aug based on last winter when it nearly ran out when the local roads were impassable.
The local farmers picked up the geese arriving a month earlier than normal in sept and I saw the Fieldfare also arriving early sept, both signs of a hard winter.
http://www.rspb.org.uk/wildlife/birdguide/name/f/fieldfare/index.aspx
Zedsdeadbed
May i poiltely suggest that you consider reading the HSI.
The truth is in there.
sHx
I am struggling to keep a straight face here. Do you know how absurd, how anti-scientific it is to even entertain the idea that a postman doing daily delivery rounds is better equipped to make weather predictions than a meteorologist studying weather patterns?
From what I can see, you can't argue with success. The postman has nailed two bad winters in a row, and in case you don't believe me, look outside if you are in Europe, while the met was predicting the warmest winter on record (again). And some are bewailing that little children will never see snow unless they live in Antarctica. Tell me about the scientific method they are using.
And in case you have missed my previous posts, I have a strong background in computational computing and statistics, the very tools that the Met are abusing to come up with their absurd politically correct twaddle.
Believe the Met if you want. From what I have seen posted on BH over the last year or so, they have no idea what they are doing.
j ferguson
It will be because they won't be able to afford a back yard after they get through "leveling" us.
That too, I must agree.
ZDB
Why don't you go out and play in the snow? You are most tiresome. We are all very sorry that you missed your flight to Cancun because of the weather, but that is no reason to act the way your are.
A comment spotted at Climate Audit made me smile
http://climateaudit.org/2010/11/30/assange-on-climategate/#comment-246510
Climate Audit Comment: “The top environment article (i.e the most-read) on the UK Independent newspaper’s website is one written 10 years ago. In it, snip David Viner of CRU solemnly informed us that the last few mild winters in eastern England proved that global warming was here.
“Within a few years”, claimed some twit from CRU, “winter snowfall will become ‘a very rare and exciting event’. Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
Weather is climate when it supports AGW, but when we’re freezing our asses off then it’s just weather.
Click on the link:
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
Cry laughing, and embarrass the warmists by keeping this article at #1.
End Climate Audit Comment…………
As scientists predictions of years ago, are no longer lost in hardcopy, but available for all (ie Hansens, flooded streets of new yor 20 year prediction – 22 years ago) The general public and journalists (should they bother can come to their own conclusions on climate predictions…
Which coincidentally just before Cancun- Cop 16, we have had a rash of warmest year on record staements (in Novemeber — not finished yet) and it is hotter than we thought, 4.0c not 2.0C, etc..
The General Public, have had years of ‘wolf’ crying on all sorts of issues, and they recognise when things are going wrong, the cries of ‘wolf’ get louder and shriller…
In the UK we have had snow earlier than I can remember, and we are having record breaking temperature lows… (met office non predicted a mild winter again)
Of course that is weather, not climate….
But the UK public are used to the Met office and others, at every time there has been a hot spell or day, to proclaim it is the hottest on record, and all sorts of implied AGW pronouncements…
yet, when we had the coldest August for 17 years, no mention at all.. everyone knows that if it had been the warmist, there would have been headlines and scare stories….
Of course, the latest idea, is that the record cold for decades in the UK, is an example of ‘global climate disruption’ caused by AGW leading rise to extreme weather events…
I do not think the general public in the UK will buy into this……
for those who wonder if Louise Gray is a figment of the our imagination. i believe this is her, unless Louise says otherwise:
this extraordinarily lengthy list of alarmist pieces are all from the Telegraph beginning March 2008, except the one listed last, which is for February 2008, when Louise appears to have moved from The Scotsman to the Guardian for a brief moment:
Journalisted: Louise Gray
1476 articles (since February 2008)
http://journalisted.com/louise-gray?allarticles=yes
18 Feb 2008: Guardian: Louise Gray: Green worker
Booking a business trip? Think about the transport you choose
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/feb/18/green
LOL:
29 Sept 2006: Scotsman: Louise Gray: Climate change is good for Scotland - professor
Climate change in Scotland will lead to 'fewer deaths from cold' Professor Lomborg argues reducing carbon emissions will have little effect Professor accuses lobbyists of ‘scaremongering’ leading to public 'hysteria'
Key quote "Cutting carbon emissions believing that will have make much of a difference is almost illusory" - Professor Bjorn Lomborg
In an address to the Scottish Parliament, Professor Bjorn Lomborg said the "scaremongering" of lobbyists, such as former United States vice-president Al Gore, has led to a "hysteria" so that governments are wasting resources on climate change that could be spent on tackling global poverty.
Prof Lomborg, the author of The Sceptical Environmentalist, said: "When you scare people into hysteria, you are not very likely to make smart decisions." In developed countries like Scotland, he said the temperature increase of two degrees would lead to more species and fewer deaths from the cold...
He said: "If you care about Scotland's flora and fauna, you should focus on setting aside national parks and all the things that typically degrade nature like over-fertilisation, industrial pollution and those kind of things that have huge impacts.
"But cutting carbon emissions believing that will have make much of a difference is almost illusory."
But Duncan McLaren, chief executive of Friends of the Earth, said: "The scientific evidence is cranking up and up.
We have to see global emissions decline within 15 years."
COMMENT BY EDDIE:
Lomborg was trained as a statistician, not an environmental scientist. And as a statistician, he is very adept at fiddling the figures to show just what he wants them to show. Any damn fool can cherry pick stats to back up his argument - it's a profoundly unscientific approach.
A large part of his argument is based on the premise that climate change is a discrete issue, unconnected with anything else. According to Lomborg, we need to solve global poverty before we bother about climate change. Likewise AIDS, likewise illiteracy.
What the photogenic Danish fool conveniently ignores is that it is the poorest people in the poorest countries who will be hit hardest by climate change. Even the World Bank - scarcely a hotbed of environmental extremism - accepts this. If Lomborg genuinely cares about poverty, climate change is the first thing that we need to tackle. But hey! Lomborg reckons it's going to be good for Scotland, so who cares about those pesky Africans!
The scientific consensus on climate change and its impacts remains rock solid. The scientific community and virtually all governments accept the necessity of tackling climate change. Lomborg's nonsense will appeal to the sad loony flat-earthers, but he cuts no ice with the rest of us.
COMMENT by Paul K: Some of the posters above had better watch their step.
The Royal Society forbids anyone to criticise scientists who believe in global warming and you will have your wages stopped with immediate effect.
http://news.scotsman.com/climatechange/Climate-change-is-good-for.2814470.jp
prior to 2006, Louise handled social and political affairs - she's a real all-rounder:
29 March 2005: Scotsman: Louise Gray: The dangerous game
In Edinburgh, an average of one prostitute a week is attacked, according to ScotPep....
http://living.scotsman.com/features/The-dangerous-game.2614005.jp
21 Dec 2006: Scotsman: UK cities in grip of violent gang culture which influenced Beshenivsky killers
By LOUISE GRAY
SCOTTISH POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT
http://news.scotsman.com/sharonbeshenivskykilling/UK-cities-in-grip-of.2836815.jp
P.S. this one from the Guardian was probably written just prior to moving to the Telegraph, but published after her move:
28 April 2008: Guardian: Green-eyed monsters
Is your workplace full of eco-refuseniks, forever hindering your best efforts to save the planet? Or, asks Louise Gray, could it be possible that they have a point?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/apr/28/workandcareers
@Don Pablo
Paul the Psychic Octopus predicted eight correct wins in a row. How about that for success! Some might argue that Paul wasn't psychic at all, and that he only had two choices, and that his repeated success is purely by chance. Well, the good postman also has two choices: either a cold winter or a mild winter. And two successful predictions in a row for winter are just not good enough. He has to do it for eight winters in a row surpass Paul's achievement. Then he too can have fame, fortune and a Wikipedia page.
As for my background, it is mostly philosophy. I got into it for the money.
Ah, I live in the Southeastern corner of the world. And, yes, summer has never been this late in my memory.
Nothing on polar bears of late. Perhaps hibernating early?
ZEDS DEAD BEAT.
SOME TIME BACK, I TOLD YOU TO GO BACK TO YOUR RAT HOLE IN TRURO.
PLEASE OBLIGE.
_________
Heartily seconded.
What is the hockey stick illusion?
Live in Texas, had highest temperatures and hottest summer ever recorded
Andrey from Online Nursing Degrees