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Discussion > Is this science?

@PC What number
Perhaps you mean the numbers in my hypothetical example ?
"Imagine if the situation was reversed "

BTW Do you deny that about 500 on the original 11,000 list seem to be undergraduate students ?

Nov 14, 2019 at 2:22 PM | Unregistered Commenterstewgreen

@PC you misrepresent,me (not a surprise)
I said "Imagine if the situation was reversed and it was we skeptics that had done did a internet petition and used it to claim that 11,000 scientists had signed our official paper
and the media gave it wide coverage and said all the people were scientists.
People like Phil would be all over it
Pointing out this
study has 500 undergraduate students
500 masters/ PHd students
another close 1,000 are retired etc.
take off he doctors and dentists and its another 650
"

I said "People like Phil would say those things
I didn't say I would .. I do think that retired scientists count as proper scientists
I don't think undergraduates or masters students count as scientists,
nor PhD students who are not doing proper hard research.

My portrayal of "people like Phil", was based on their outragebussing after Skeptic petitions
which they attempted to dismiss with words like say 'half of them are retired'

Nov 14, 2019 at 2:31 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

Hypothetical=totally made up. You can't say 'Imagine if the situation was reversed' and then describe something markedly different....or maybe you can.

'BTW Do you deny that about 500 on the original 11,000 list seem to be undergraduate students '

That would invalidate the list if true. Could you detail some of their names, say 50?

'

Nov 14, 2019 at 11:17 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

While stewgreen can be somewhat intemperate in his postings, much to the annoyance of others, I do think that you are clutching at straws, here, Mr Clarke – he does have a point.

Nov 15, 2019 at 12:17 AM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

That point would seem to depend on redefining what was meant by a 'scientist'.

Nowhere did the paper claim the signatories were practising climate scientists. So arguing on that basis is futile.

He then decides that 40 signatories using the Spanish spelling of 'Professor' counts against the paper.

Ah, but wait, apparently, after citing a list of (wrong) numbers

Doh it's not the actual number that matters

We then have the thought experiment of

'Imagine if the situation was reversed and it was we skeptics that had done did a internet petition [...]

Including

another close (sic) 1,000 are retired etc.

Followed by

I do think that retired scientists count as proper scientists

I mean, c'mon, he's all over the map on this.

The reality is that the overwhelming majority of the scientific community endorse the IPCC position, and some, understandably, interpret that as an 'emergency'. Here's the position statement of the US AGU (20,000 members), I could have chosen the US National Academy of Science, our own Royal Society, or indeed any professional association of scientists

Humanity is the major influence on the global climate change observed over the past 50 years. Rapid societal responses can significantly lessen negative outcomes.

Human activities are changing Earth’s climate. At the global level, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases have increased sharply since the Industrial Revolution. Fossil fuel burning dominates this increase. Human-caused increases in greenhouse gases are responsible for most of the observed global average surface warming of roughly 0.8°C (1.5°F) over the past 140 years. Because natural processes cannot quickly remove some of these gases (notably carbon dioxide) from the atmosphere, our past, present, and future emissions will influence the climate system for millennia.

Extensive, independent observations confirm the reality of global warming. These observations show large-scale increases in air and sea temperatures, sea level, and atmospheric water vapor; they document decreases in the extent of mountain glaciers, snow cover, permafrost, and Arctic sea ice. These changes are broadly consistent with long-understood physics and predictions of how the climate system is expected to respond to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases. The changes are inconsistent with explanations of climate change that rely on known natural influences.

Climate models predict that global temperatures will continue to rise, with the amount of warming primarily determined by the level of emissions. Higher emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to larger warming, and greater risks to society and ecosystems. Some additional warming is unavoidable due to past emissions.

Climate change is not expected to be uniform over space or time. Deforestation, urbanization, and particulate pollution can have complex geographical, seasonal, and longer-term effects on temperature, precipitation, and cloud properties. In addition, human-induced climate change may alter atmospheric circulation, dislocating historical patterns of natural variability and storminess.

In the current climate, weather experienced at a given location or region varies from year to year; in a changing climate, both the nature of that variability and the basic patterns of weather experienced can change, sometimes in counterintuitive ways – some areas may experience cooling, for instance. This raises no challenge to the reality of human-induced climate change.

Impacts harmful to society, including increased extremes of heat, precipitation, and coastal high water are currently being experienced, and are projected to increase. Other projected outcomes involve threats to public health, water availability, agricultural productivity (particularly in low-latitude developing countries), and coastal infrastructure, though some benefits may be seen at some times and places. Biodiversity loss is expected to accelerate due to both climate change and acidification of the oceans, which is a direct result of increasing carbon dioxide levels.

hile important scientific uncertainties remain as to which particular impacts will be experienced where, no uncertainties are known that could make the impacts of climate change inconsequential. Furthermore, surprise outcomes, such as the unexpectedly rapid loss of Arctic summer sea ice, may entail even more dramatic changes than anticipated.

Actions that could diminish the threats posed by climate change to society and ecosystems include substantial emissions cuts to reduce the magnitude of climate change, as well as preparing for changes that are now unavoidable. The community of scientists has responsibilities to improve overall understanding of climate change and its impacts. Improvements will come from pursuing the research needed to understand climate change, working with stakeholders to identify relevant information, and conveying understanding clearly and accurately, both to decision makers and to the general public.

From <https://www.agu.org/Share-and-Advocate/Share/Policymakers/Position-Statements/Human-induced-climate-change-requires-urgent-action>

Nov 15, 2019 at 1:29 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

Radical : you misrepresent
"stewgreen can be somewhat intemperate"
Nope I never lose my temper
Am I annoying ? yes .. cos I am persistent

In his long post PC misrepresents me ..claiming I claimed things when I didn't
eg about "professor"
I simply cutNpasted someones word counts
and added the comment "@PC You deny these counts ?"

I actually edited out the guys count on students
cos I wasn't sure if he had a double count
https://twitter.com/cdjstrydom/status/1192412325539713024
Here is it now

"462 PhD students
514 students"
(someone else on WUWT counted " 972 Students,")

I asked PC if he denied that there are 500 students on the list
He declined to answer .. insisting that I must give him 50 names

I don't think it is unreasonable for me to answer my question.

(BTW that thread has various screenshots here
"Copy editor, enrollment coach, and mom to scientist" )

Bottomline is Phi's side made a big claim in a news story
'this is a list of SCIENTISTS'
That claim was false and they got caught out
And that shows how disingenuous they are.
The media have walked away
when they certainly wouldn't let skeptics get away with it.

Nov 15, 2019 at 10:38 AM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

Do you deny that about 500 on the original 11,000 list seem to be undergraduate students

That would invalidate the list if true. Could you detail some of their names, say 50?

I simply cutNpasted someones word counts

That would be a 'no'.

Inaccurate to the last, the word 'student' occurs 974 times, however the phrase 'Phd student' or 'graduate student' occurs over 800 times. The number where the signatory just signs 'student' barely makes it into double figures. Stewgreen has just pasted somebody else's BS, ironically without performing basic quality checks.

As I posted earlier, I'm not a fan of this type of exercise, and it's arguable that a few names were included that should not have been, however these amount to the kind of error rate inherent in any opinion survey and do not falsify the headline number of 11,000 scientists.

My last word on this.

Nov 15, 2019 at 11:11 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

(BTW that thread has various screenshots here

Those are not of the same list.

Nov 15, 2019 at 11:20 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

Oh the mom of scientist, was not from the same list
Sorry, but it shows it is difficult to to see the difference between a bogus list
and this 11,000 list
====================


Phil you sneered when in my example of a skeptics list I spoke of "take off the doctors and dentists"
Yet the 11,000 list has plenty of veterinarians someone counted 83
"quite a few signers of the declaration that just left this column blank"
Someone found it has 342″candidates” for PhD work
When people start scanning for how many real scientists there are on the list
they give up after a while, through laughing.

Indeed when people post screenshots each page seems to have not just one but a number on non bono fide signers

The cabbie signed as a scientist and even in his hometown some of the signers are undergrads ..so you'd expect that to be replicated across the world
https://www.thespec.com/news-story/9683052-retired-hamilton-cabbie-gets-himself-on-list-of-fake-scientists-declaring-climate-emergency/

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/11/who_are_these_11000_concerned_scientists.html
In keyword searches across 324 pages of signing signatories, spanning 11,224 scientists, I found 240 (2%) individuals with professions that can be construed as bona fide meteorologists, climatologists, or atmospheric scientists. As a frame of reference, the Department of Labor reports that there are 10,000 atmospheric scientists in the U.S. Conversely, this list contains plenty of "experts" who have zero credibility on the topic of climate change, coming from fields such as infectious diseases, paleontology, ecology, zoology, epidemiology and nutrition, insect ecology, anthropology, computer science, OB-GYN, and linguistics. Bluntly, and no offense intended, I could not care less what a French professor or a zookeeper thinks about climate change — let alone allow him to tell me how to live my life.

See also
https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/11/13/can-anyone-identify-as-a-climate-scientist/

Nov 15, 2019 at 11:40 AM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

The reality is that the overwhelming majority of the scientific community endorse the IPCC position…
So, you agree with science by consensus, then, Mr Clarke… You are aware that the overwhelming majority of the scientific community initially thought the likes of Darwin and Einstein were wrong, too, aren’t you? Yet, you feel that science requires the endorsement of the scientific community. Mind you, having said that, I do not think that the overwhelming majority of the scientific community do endorse the IPCC position – unless, of course, your definition of “scientist” is different from mine (and others’) – as there are many, many scientists who do not endorse it; indeed, there is another letter extant with a claimed 30,000 “scientist signatories” disputing the AGW/ACC/Call-it-what-you-will scam, which is more or less what stewgreen was talking about. Which only brings us back to square one: how many of the signatories of these press release are scientists?

Apologies, stewgreen: “intemperate” might have been the wrong word; “exasperating” might have been better.

Nov 15, 2019 at 2:01 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

@Radical “exasperating” I accept
I don't do that slippery PR thing, of pretending to make friends
I do stick to the argument and don't go around namecalling to smear people and shut them down

Nov 15, 2019 at 2:05 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

Again, Spiked is just including climate science or related disciplines, nowhere in the paper do they claim this was the criterion for inclusion. You can 'prove' anything if you make up your own rules.

Nov 15, 2019 at 3:07 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

I do not see why Professor Matthew Baylis, Professor of Veterinary Epidemiology at the University of Liverpool, is (a) not a scientist or (b) not entitled to agree that we face a climate emergency.

The same applies to the overwhelming majority of the other signatories.

Nov 15, 2019 at 3:27 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

You can 'prove' anything if you make up your own rules.

errr....pot .... you know the rest

Nov 15, 2019 at 4:06 PM | Unregistered Commenterfred

So, you agree with science by consensus, then, Mr Clarke

Nope. Doesn't follow. My remark was in the context of the topic of the thread, which is about the support within the scientific community for what I use the shorthand 'IPCC position'.

Nov 15, 2019 at 5:37 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

"My last word on this.
Nov 15, 2019 at 11:11 AM | Phil Clarke "

He's posted a few times since then

Nov 15, 2019 at 6:45 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

As for Phils plea for a list of 50 students
of course I can only quote other people
cos shortly after the shoddiness of the original 11,000 revealed the list was taken down.
So so cant access it.

As ever the the onus is on who is making the claim to supply the evidence.

They made the claim ..'we have 11,000 scientists on our list'
Skeptics said 'at first glance we can see fake
names and non scientist job descriptions'

So it's not up to us third parties to do the work of verifying the list !
The burden of proof is with those who first promoted the list"
It's bogus until proven true, not the other way around.

Nov 15, 2019 at 6:53 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

So so cant access it.

Of course you can, Its supplemental file 1, you can access it by following the link in the article.

https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biz088/5610806

You mean all this time you haven't actually read the damn thing???

Nov 15, 2019 at 9:39 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

Mr Clarke: …erm…. yep, it does follow. The whole basis of this thread revolves around a few points: 1) are all the 11,224 signatories really scientists, whatever the definition of scientist might be? 2) it is claimed that this report has some “authority” as a scientific study, when it blatantly isn’t (being labelled "Viewpoint"); and, 3) the IPCC is known as a political body that uses scientists; it is almost definitely not a scientific body. As you say, you can “prove” anything, if you make up your own rules.

Nov 15, 2019 at 11:33 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

"You mean all this time you haven't actually read the damn thing???"

Yes of course I haven't read the list
It's not up to me to go on a wild goose chase into mad alarmist propaganda
If reasonable doubts exist about its veracity it's not up to us third parties to do the work of verifying the list !
The burden of proof is with those who first promoted the list
It's bogus until proven true, not the other way around.

Are you claiming the ORIGINAL list with Micky Mouse is still up and was never taken down ?
When something has been taken down it's not for me to go checking every day ti sea if they put it back up.

Nov 16, 2019 at 9:33 AM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

No, they removed the bogus names. All 34 of them.

But then you'd know that if you had read it - it was never taken down, that was just one more of your bogus claims.

Nov 16, 2019 at 9:44 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

If they have removed names from the list
then its not the original list is it !

You mean that the list was taken down
and then sometime later a sanitised list was put up
Plenty of people said when they tried to access the list , it had been taken down.

A copy of the original list is here
https://synthesisr.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Signatory-list-Ripple-et-al.pdf

BTW a pdf is difficult to analyse compared to a spreadsheet

Nov 16, 2019 at 9:46 AM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

"Arom, Sima: Emeritus Senior Researcher, ETHNOMUSICOLOGIST, at CNRS"

is that still on the list as a scientist ?
..Do I have wade through it picking out things like that and the gynecologists etc ?

Nov 16, 2019 at 10:01 AM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

Still looking forward to discovering the names of those 500 undergraduates.

To summarise: your criticisms were based on what other people posted about the paper and the signatories. You are critical of the exercise and the rigour of its reveiw process, but you didn't bother to check the BS you posted against the freely-available actual list.

If they had left the erroneous names up, you'd have been the first to complain.

The latest version of Microsoft Word can open pdfs and has good review and word count functions.

Nov 16, 2019 at 10:04 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

.Do I have wade through it picking out things like that and the gynecologists etc ?

What, substantiate the things you've posted? Would have some novelty value....

Nov 16, 2019 at 10:20 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke