Bishop Hill Winter jolly
Dec 31, 2013 Greens The saga of the stricken Antarctic expedition continues to fascinate and intrigue. The news overnight is that all the passengers are to be evacuated by helicopter, leaving only the crew on board.
Meanwhile, Richard Tol has been noting the backgrounds of some of the researchers on board:
Ben Fisk
Ben is a PhD candidate at the Centre for Rural Emergency Medicine, Deakin University, researching rural and urban differences in traumatic brain injury outcomes.
James MacDiarmid
James trained as a Primary school teacher, with a Masters degree in Educational Leadership. He is currently completing his doctorate in educational sciences with a primary focus on the early years of both pre-school and primary students.
And so on. To be fair, there are some genuine climate scientists on board too, but with many of their fellow travellers clearly occupying the "free holiday" category the impression you get is of a carbon guzzling boondoggle rather than a research trip.
Reader Comments (251)
The Aurora Australis now appears to have an
iced-up vessel visible on its bow webcam.
Is it the Chinese icebreaker or the Shokalskiy?
Harry Passfield
I'm not one to disagree with either you or Dellers on this.
Can I point you to my latest contribution on the 'No challenge' thread? I haven't changed my position which has always been "show me the evidence". It's the self-righteous "rightness" which gets up my nose and I keep wanting to yell that nobody but the Almighty is that right about anything.
I think Delingpole might just have grown up a bit and realised much the same thing. Pity the warmists can't see it. The debate might be more fruitful if we could come out of our trenches and establish what the true situation is and where it is most likely to lead over the next 25 years.
From Update 2 at WUWT:
Journalist on board Aurora confirms they are closing in on Chinese icebreaker Xue Long
Looks like a lot of thick ice around.
The spirits they call from the vasty ice, do answer.
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@Jan 1, 2014 at 11:26 AM | TerryS
Sale must have fallen through I guess
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/press/guardian-to-sell-off-profitable-auto-trader-in-bid-to-improve-rapidly-deteriorating-finances-8376386.html (Dec 2012)
"The Guardian has begun talks with the private equity group Apax to sell off its remaining share of the car advertising business Auto Trader in an attempt to improve its rapidly deteriorating financial position"
How about this account of another Mawson Centenary trip I came across when seeking info on the B09B berg? Note the dateline.
Is it deja vue all over again? Even the same ship the Shokalskiy was involved.
Douglas Mawson centenary trip to Antarctica frozen as cold reality sets in
MATTHEW DENHOLM, ANTARCTICA THE AUSTRALIAN DECEMBER 21, 2011 12:00AM
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/douglas-mawson-centenary-trip-to-antarctica-frozen-as-cold-reality-sets-in/story-e6frg8y6-1226227156367
Paul Homewood looks at who foots the bill for this fiasco.
I haven't verified it but there's been some suggestion that the organisation has some roots in the northern hemisphere - to what's left of my mind it's curious they've murkily used an obfuscated UK internet domain registration. The funding isn't exposed at all AFAICS. The involvement of Tim Flannery looks like the Gillard / Green axis got their oar into the thing too. An org chart is required - Josh????
At this stage in the proceedings the owners / insurers will be looking rather closely at the relevant documents.... It would be doubly delicious if the trippers personal insurance had to cover the cost of their retrieval - perhaps they should be looking at the "terms & conditions" :-)
Oh... to have a copy of the charter document :-p
marchesarosa that Australian piece is $$ from here but Google:
Reuters report
And a SA Times report
and Sydney Morning Herald
Mawson's actual exploits in Antarctica are pretty 'orrible - and this lot's jolly pushed the "Spirit of Mawson" in a reenactment-y sort of a way - I actually hope they don't get too authentic in that endeavor :-)
I found this piece from Wellbeing.com.au which manages to get through Mawson's adventures without mentioning much death or eating the dogs...
Jeremy P,
Selling Auto Trader seems like suicide to me? The profits from that and the BBC advertising revenue ARE the only things keeping that fetid carcas of a news paper afloat! Cutting off your, pardon the pun, left hand in an attempt to improve ones financial position can only ever be a short term fix to its terminal demise.
Regards
Mailman
"The news overnight is that all the passengers are to be evacuated by helicopter"
That would be unwise, Your Grace. A simple enema might be sufficient to relieve most cases of constipation.
Judith Curry has just posted an article - Antarctic sea ice saga. She concludes with a reference to BH:
The Wire: to evacuate
Chris Turney talks to Bryony Worthington: Stemming_the_Tide_of_Rising_Greenhouse_Gases.
Is it true that the 4 deg C "it's worse than we thought" paper was "rushed out" by Turney's boss?
Autonomous_Mind.
Don't panic! Turney chose his team more wisely than Robert Scott. Obviously, Scott did not have enough meeja people with him.
In this second and final preview of his trip, Professor Turney tells reporter Margo O'Neill he's learnt from the life and death experiences of early explorers like Scott.
@Alex Cull
The WUWT history about help with forecasts is a bit strange.
The Antarctic expedition has weather reports from the Australian Antarctic Division and from meteoexploration.com
Meteoexloration does not endorse CAGW, but provide these data: http://www.meteoexploration.com/expeditions/CapeDenison/
Which I am sure the sailor at the Russian boat will be more than able to interpret.
graphicconception -
Seems unlikely. The paper was submitted in May, accepted in November, and just now published online.
A succinct and thorough appraisal of the simple facts here:
http://davidsdiamondsandrust.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/if-you-are-going-to-argue-you-need.html
' I am not a scientist. But I hope I can think critically and I know where the facts are leading me.
You can refute the facts above present new facts. I have evidence to back all of these. If you want to join the discussion make sure you bring some evidence to the party.
The truth will come out when someone has to pay for it all. The finger pointing has started already. Don't hold your breath though maritime insurance claims can go on 20 years or more.'
I reproduce below a comment from WUWT:
J. Herbst says:
January 1, 2014 at 10:57 am
the wife of Turney has a a MEd Language and Literacy at University of Wollongong followed by an MSc in Educational Research focusing on multimedia education at University of Exeter, UK and is part of the scientific crew, as you can see here:
http://www.spiritofmawson.com/aae-science-leaders/
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Well, well. Mme Turney's first degree is from the University of Wollongong, Marxist historian heaven, and her second is from Exeter, co-sponsors of the expedition.
What a co-incidence!
According to commenter Dave #23 at Jo Nova’s, the helicopter rescue starts tonight (tomorrow morning in Australia). See
http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/documents/02012014AkademikShokalskiyUpdate9_Media_Release.pdf
@Jan 1, 2014 at 3:31 PM | Mailman
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Indeed - and clearly the sale didn't go through. Regardless, they are losing money like nobody's business. Indeed, the more they lose, the more they raise Rusbridger's salary. Odd.
Here is the article in full in The Australian 21 Dec 2011 I was trying to link to;
ONE hundred years after Douglas Mawson's first Australian-led Antarctic expedition was almost defeated by thick pack ice, the same problem has stumped those seeking to follow in his wake.
Unusually dense ice floes off the coast of East Antarctica, and particularly Mawson's landing spot of January 1912, Commonwealth Bay, have in recent days repelled private expeditions seeking to commemorate the centenary of the historic event.
Three tourist expeditions have been unable to make planned visits to Mawson's Hut, the timber shack used as a base for the landmark 1911-1914 Australasian Antarctic Expedition.
Instead they have been treated to a vast sea of densely compacted ice floes that experienced expeditioners describe as unprecedented in recent history.
Howard Whelan, expedition leader aboard the Aurora Expedition's ice-strengthened ship Akademik Shokalskiy, said: "I've never seen it like this." A veteran of 50 trips to Antarctica, including five to East Antarctica over 14 years, Mr Whelan said the Shokalskiy tried for several days to penetrate the pack ice, which is driven by wind and waves.
However, like two other ships, the Orion and Spirit of Enderby, it had been ultimately forced to turn back, fearing it would otherwise be trapped in pack ice as dense as 8/10ths and 9/10ths (ice surface to visible water).
"At the thinnest point where we were trying to work our way through, it (the pack ice) would have been about 120 miles (193km) long so still a fairly significant band," Mr Whelan said.
"The narrowest part of this pack-ice band across this coast, including the marginal ice, is well in excess of 200 miles and 250 miles in most places. And it goes way out into the Ross Sea and hundreds of miles to the west of us."
The three ships departed Hobart on December 2, the same date Mawson's expedition had sailed from the Tasmanian capital 100 years earlier.
Mawson's expedition was the first to set foot on, explore and map a 3200km area of the frozen continent between Cape Adare and Gaussberg. While marred by the tragic deaths of expeditioners Xavier Mertz and Belgrave Ninnis, it laid the basis for Australia's territorial claims and scientific presence in Antarctica.
Aboard the Aurora, Mawson's expedition entered and retreated from thick pack ice and at times feared it would not make land.
"The pack grew heavier and the bergs more numerous, embattled in a formidable array," Mawson would later write. "It was impenetrable. No water-sky showed as a distant beacon; all over was reflected the pitiless, white glare of the ice."
Eventually, on January 8, 1912, the Aurora managed to reach land at what would be named Cape Denison and become the AAE's main base.
Jan Lieser, glaciologist with the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Co-operative Research Centre, said the unusual conditions 100 years later were linked to large icebergs trapping sea ice.
"The sea ice conditions are mainly driven by the presence of this large iceberg, former B09B, (that) originated from the Ross Sea as B09 in 1987," Dr Lieser said.
B09 broke into two pieces - B09A and B09B - and in February last year B09B collided with the Mertz Glacier tongue. This forced the ice tongue to break away from the glacier and form another berg. Soon after, B09B became grounded in shallow waters in front of Commonwealth Bay.
B09B has since broken into three bergs. All the bergs act as barriers, damming sea ice that would otherwise drift westward along the coast.
As well, the bergs act as anchor points for "fast-ice" that attaches to land.
From the bow of a ship in heavy pack ice, the sea appears a heaving, endless icescape.
Mawson's Huts Foundation director Greg Holland, aboard the Shokalskiy, said the failure to reach Cape Denison was disappointing, but provided insight into the difficulties of Antarctic travel.
Helicoptering to starts soon apparently:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25572503
But check out this from the Wall St Journal:
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304591604579292611684898656
"The rich abundance of our carbon-based economy has not only provided the means to sustain their lives, but even to post a cheerful sing-along on Youtube..."
marchesarosa:
Curious. They refer to being trapped in pack ice, yet claim that all this ice is from bergs calving because of global warming. Which is it, please?
Doh! Silly me! Have just read a bit further... Too much libation these past few days.
On 1 January The Australian published a long front-page attack on Global Warmism and the carbon tax scam, written by a top business adviser to the OZ Prime Minister.
On 2 January the paper has a caustic article on the Ship of Fools :
At least the tide may be turning in OZ.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/editorials/stuck-on-a-ship-of-cold-fools/story-e6frg71x-1226793309195
Not sure if this has been posted elsewhere here but perhaps this is the balmy scene these foolish and deluded folk expected or imagined. Footage from the 1912 expedition to Commonwealth Bay.
'Mawson in ice-free Commwealth Bay Antarctica in 1912'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-9yJ6-6aEs
Sounds like things just got a whole lot more complicated...
"Rescue operations delayed by ice conditions
AMSA understands that current sea ice conditions prevent the barge from Aurora Australis from reaching the Chinese vessel Xue Long (Snow Dragon) and a rescue may not be possible today.
The Xue Long’s helicopter is unable to land on the Aurora Australis due to load rating restrictions. It is not safe to land the helicopter next to Aurora Australis at this time.
The preferred and safest option at this stage is to ultimately transfer the passengers onto Aurora Australis.
...The preferred option is to wait for conditions that will allow the rescue to be completed in a single operation to reduce unnecessary risk."
http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/documents/02012014AkademikShokalskiyUpdate10_Media_Release.pdf
Peter S
yup - looks like the Xue Long tried moving around and like a vehicle in deep mud, succeeded in jamming herself in. The Aussies are just drifting with the ice but understandably I suppose won't volunteer if that's good or bad :-)
Looking at the ice in the photos in the SMH piece - I think it's possible that they might still be in roughly the same situation / places by the time the US Coast Guard turn up - but they've apparently throttled back from flank speed passing Sydney - probably tapping the fuel gauge and rolling their eyes skywards and muttering seafarer's profanities about gas turbines and politician's grasp of reality ....
Professor Turkey and his jolly crew are causing a load of grief.
Temperature rising in Australia ? Another very caustic newspaper article, directly attacking Turney :
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/in-the-icy-grip-of-fear-that-global-warming-is-claptrap/story-fni0cwl5-1226793282194
The latest news from the Safety Authority keeps a calm tone. But there is plenty of room for the people on the Ship of Fools to be getting really worried. The weather might close in again, Plan A can't now work it seems, it is looking like the Irish saying "You can't get there from here" - and Polar Star is at least a week away plus the time needed to cut through many km of sea ice.
News, national, TV Australia 3 pm local EADST Thursday January 2nd.
Yet another rescue attempt has been called off. It seems that the helicopter cannot land safely at one or more of the several places needed to execute the full plan that ends finally at the Aurora Australis as per news of yesterday -
"The Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) said the operation involving the airlifting of 52 passengers from the Akademik Shokalskiy, which had been set to involve a Chinese helicopter, no longer looked possible due to the adverse conditions.
The ice was preventing a smaller vessel from the Australian icebreaker Aurora Australis from reaching Chinese icebreaker the Xue Long, which is nearer to the stranded ship.
The plan was to fly passengers to the Chinese vessel before they were transferred to the Aurora Australis by boat."
In my career of mineral exploration we were sometimes in very dangerous places. Imagine how you would feel watching your Toyota Land Cruiser with long range fuel tanks go up in a very hot fire before you had time for a radio call and you were at lats/longs 21 30 00 S and 122 12 00 E in the summertime where it can approach 50 deg C. (We had a camp near there for several years.)
If you ever get lost in dangerous locations - and you have the experience or sense to know a dangerous situation - you are sometimes overcome with panic and then you act irrationally.
Those who know about this plan with caution, never sending out single vehicles, having navigation and radio backups, having an experienced person on board at all times and so on.
Otherwise, lives are lost. The principles are similar to the Antarctic vis a vis fear, the temperatures in the example are at the other extreme of course. Both are deadly.
Geoff Sherrington
In other latitudes this lot might well be bungee jumping into active volcanoes without checking they're tied on...
There were supposed to be experienced people on board - but it's a small ship and a lot of "convivial" passengers. There will be an investigation - I hope it's public and I hope the person asking the questions isn't a whitewashing creep - there's already some sharp commentary in the Aussie press.
I suppose they could bungee jump a volcano in Antarctica - but I heard that the elastic isn't very reliable in cold weather. I'll get my coat.
Tomo;
There ‘s a pretty lively investigation going on in comment threads all over the place - most relevantly at the Guardian - whose science correspondent Alok Jha has posted 17 comments since Christmas Day, almost all of them about life on a cruise ship, and containing just one sentence about science, and absolutey nothing about how the ship got stuck in the ice. For Degree Zero blather, it’s difficult to do better than this (26 December): “No such things as plans” eh? Meanwhile, back here in the real world, there are plans to rescue you, Alok, involving governments on four continents, and plans to overturn two centuries of technical progress based on.. oh, never mind.One commenter at the Guardian has filed two comments quoting friends on board to the effect that escape from the approaching ice was delayed by the scientists. No word from anyone at the Guardian or the BBC about that.
It look like they are leaving - http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/02/antarctic-rescue-under-way-akademik
The Guardian has photos and a film clip of the Chinese helicopter “landing” with a voice over from Turney saying: “If all goes well we’ll be off in about an hour’s time”. What we see is the helicopter on - or rather, in - the ice for about 20 seconds, just long enough for about 6 men to jump out, before it flies off again.
From the way the wheels sink into the ice, it looks like they could do with a more solid surface. Perhaps 52 laptops laid out in a square?
They are not leaving. The crews of three nations are now very much in danger. The Chinese icebreaker is trapped. Turney's negligence and incompetence is bordering on the criminal. We can just hope and pray everyone makes it out of there alive. The University of New South Wales the recipient of so much CAGW government and corporate funded largesse is vicariously responsible for Turney's incompetence and folly. This frolic on the ice is turning very nasty and dangerous.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/travel/travel-incidents/helicopter-rescue-delayed-as-second-ship-trapped-in-ice-20140102-306yj.htmlhttp://www.canberratimes.com.au/travel/travel-incidents/helicopter-rescue-delayed-as-second-ship-trapped-in-ice-20140102-306yj.html
geoffchambers
yeah, well - Alok didn't / hasn't done his homework has he ? There seems plenty of evidence that lurking around where they were is dodgy as... and a previous expedition to Mawson's hut was abandoned for ice...
When I say investigation - I mean:
* How did a thinly veiled activist jolly like this get taxpayer funding?
* What formal operational planning was done ?
* Where's the research and how does it stack up in the related research community?
* Why did they dally longer and get caught?
* Why did they not have any aerial assets in a known dynamic ice area (cheap CCTV drone)?
* Where's the accounts?
* Where's the charter document?
So many questions.....
As I've said here before - I have been up north professionally on quite a few occasions on vessels from many nations and Turkey and his troupe looked fundamentally unserious - it's not unusual to have artists taking in the ambience and PhD candidates as intern style gophers - but (green) politicians, three (biased) meejah wallahs and a crowd of (activist) tourists? and remarkably random set of "scientists" - geddoudahere....
I haven't seen the helo vid yet - but from your description it sounds dodgy - the six guys might well be dropped to do the Tokyo commuter pack 'em in pronto like sacks of spuds thing while the driver keeps a bit of lift on. This gets worse as it progresses... It may be that they kick them out from a couple of feet above the Aussie's helideck - rather than have them on board the their own vessel (maybe they've seen the videos of the party)
Thinking about it - some of these trippers are I think about to have a very sobering experience / undignified encounter with a deafening kerosene snorting freezing hurricane making alien machine.
Here in Oz we are getting reports that the Chinese helicopter is bringing them out in batches of 12 and depositing them on an ice floe, where they are collected by boat and taken to (presumably) the Chinese ship. But the reports are very vague on details.
Hats off to the Chinese chopper pilots. This is not like the movies, where choppers effortlessly hover, land, and rescue people. It's very dangerous indeed.
Just looked at the BBC helicopter video
Dragging all their luggage out to the Milo marked "helipad" ...
From the photograph apparently from Aurora Australis earlier - the Xue Long is fast in ice so the mention of a small boat is odd and the last picture from the Aussie ship (10am) doesn't show enough clear water at the bow at any rate - to operate a small boat safely.
Somebody in the media is being a bit inventive.
Prof Turney's commentary has a certain "it's all a bit of a lark" thing going on - I'm not overly impressed with that.
Darn! I can't see that BBC video; presumably Australia is not in Asia.
@ Jgc, agreed - the Coleman/Watts/Polar Star connection seems clear, but it would be good to have confirmation from the Coastguard or Scripps as to exactly what information was requested from and passed on to the Akademik Shokalskiy.
@ johanna, the BBC video is now on YouTube (I think this is the same one):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRdfwoo0iCk
The Guardian are on it too Antarctica Live.... when it suits :-)
They dumped them on an ice floe next to the Aurora Australis (here - have them back!) - no doubt you'll be able to see them gurning into the public bow webcam at some stage. If they start whinging about the lack of a vegan menu - well I suppose that's par for the course.
The tourists are all off now, and there is a nauseating report at the BBC where they are all looking very pleased with themselves. That includes Marxist historian Ben Maddison, who seems not to care a whit that the crew (that would be the oppressed workers) have been left behind to look after the ship.
Cue tales of bravery in the face of peril, in the name of Saving the Planet. Gag.
johanna
They will get billed for messing, cabin and a transit fee on the Aurora Australis plus a contribution to the Chinese crew of course....
Given the disruption and their attitude I wonder if they'll overly ingratiate themselves with people who are down there for non-recreational purposes over the next couple of weeks? Anybody know if the vessel has a brig? Captain Murray Doyle must be overjoyed at his new crew...
I sincerely hope that none of the workers are ejected from their cabins to accomodate Mr. Maddison et al.
Nobody wandering around on Aurora Australis's deck yet - is there a webcam in the bar? (it has a bar?)
Probably enough ... but I hope the crew of the AA get to anoint their new shipmates with Vegemite and particularly Petrel poo
They ought to be coating the Chinese helicopter pilot(s) and crew with thick layers of gold, something that all Chinese appreciate.
What gets up my nose is that there seems not to be even the faintest speck of insight among this lot. Western technology (I miss the chooks, wailed the Greens MP on board), the bravery of the Chinese pilots and others involved in the rescue effort, the immense expense they have incurred, the ruination of other scientific work in the Antarctic, the destruction of many people's festive season - nup, not a clue.
What we will get is the books and the mini-series about how people, equipped with only FB, twitter, full internet access, plus a well stocked bar and larder, bravely kept to the principles of sustainability under dreadful conditions.
One commenter at the Guardian has filed two comments quoting friends on board to the effect that escape from the approaching ice was delayed by the scientists. No word from anyone at the Guardian or the BBC about that.
Jan 2, 2014 at 6:48 AM | Geoffchambers
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One wonders what size of bills might find themselves on desks in the Guardian and BBC accounting departments? I have no idea who picks up the bill for such jollies as this, apart from, initially, the taxpayer of wherever, of course; but presumably that then gets passed down the line till the buck stops?