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Skiphill, Green Sand. I predict another set of epicycles coming. What phenomenon could have affected those trees in the last few years which could not be an explanation in hisorical terms. Epicycles, that's what.

And why is it that for every warmist telling us they don't need the hockey stick there is another trying to revive it?

I wonder if they'll send the paper, data and code to Steve McI first to save us all the trouble of having to correct it?

Jul 6, 2012 at 4:26 PM | Registered Commenterrhoda


"is there a paper in submission yet?"

Not that I can find, but search limited to Google and Google Scholar, don't know where else to go?


"Recent CRU Grants"

Has the projected funded through to 30/10/2012 which would make sense, reviews etc?

Also the list is a bit thin after this year, but that might be misleading as it has not been updated for at least 12 months.

Jul 6, 2012 at 4:18 PM | Registered CommenterGreen Sand

thanks Green Sand,
re: Briffa et al project on "The Dendroclimatic Divergence Phenomenon", this is worth close attention... is there a paper in submission yet? The May 2012 end date for the grant suggests they wanted something in time for AR5.... which is appropriate if done rigorously, i.e., of course scientists should try to prepare all relevant data and assessments in time for AR5, it's just that we have seen a lot of dubious behavior from "The Team" in the past so they always deserve our watchful attention (we don't need a careless rubber-stamp of The Team's work slipped into AR5).


The Dendroclimatic Divergence Phenomenon: reassessment of causes and implications for climate reconstruction

Keith Briffa (PI),
Tim Osborn,
Tom Melvin

12/09 – 05/12

"Palaeoclimate reconstructions extend our knowledge of how climate varied in times before expansive networks of measuring instruments became available. These reconstructions are founded on an understanding of theoretical and statistically-derived associations acquired by comparing the parallel behaviour of palaeoclimate proxies and measurements of varying climate. Inferences about variations in past climate, based on this understanding, necessarily assume that the associations we observe now hold true throughout the period for which reconstructions are made. This is the essence of the uniformitarian principle. In some northern areas of the world, recent observations of tree growth and measured temperature trends appear to have diverged in recent decades, the so called "divergence" phenomenon. There has been much speculation, and numerous theories proposed, to explain why the previous temperature sensitivity of tree growth in these areas is apparently breaking down. The existence of divergence casts doubt on the uniformitarian assumption that underpins a number of important tree-ring based (dendroclimatic) reconstructions. It suggests that the degree of warmth in certain periods in the past, particularly in medieval times, may be underestimated or at least subject to greater uncertainty than is currently accepted. The lack of a clear overview of this phenomenon and the lack of a generally accepted cause had led some to challenge the current scientific consensus, represented in the 2007 report of the IPCC on the likely unprecedented nature of late 20th century average hemispheric warmth when viewed in the context of proxy evidence (mostly from trees) for the last 1300 years. This project will seek to systematically reassess and quantify the evidence for divergence in many tree-ring data sets around the Northern Hemisphere. It will establish a much clearer understanding of the nature of the divergence phenomenon, characterising the spatial patterns and temporal evolution. Based on recent published and unpublished work by the proposers, it has become apparent that foremost amongst the possible explanations is the need to account for systematic bias potentially inherent in the methods used to build many tree-ring chronologies including many that are believed to exhibit this phenomenon."

Jul 6, 2012 at 3:49 PM | Registered CommenterSkiphil

Interesting comment by a UEA insider:

H/t to commenter JS at WUWT.

Jul 6, 2012 at 3:48 PM | Unregistered CommenterBrent Hargreaves


The low price in the USA is not a marketing ploy, it is a result of over production and the slowness of the market to adapt. Remember they are still unable to export the stuff.

Jul 6, 2012 at 1:35 PM | Registered CommenterDung

Jul 5, 2012 at 10:45 PM | matthu

"... increasing evidence linking the frequency of extreme weather events to climate change, the constant complaining of the “funny weather”...."

What evidence? Are we talking about the April drought again? Anyway, I thought globull warming was supposed to give us mild, wet winters and hot, dry summers. At least, that's what the models say...

Jul 6, 2012 at 12:09 PM | Unregistered CommenterRoger Longstaff

“The Dendroclimatic Divergence Phenomenon”

Would that be 'unhiding the decline'?

Jul 6, 2012 at 10:46 AM | Registered Commenterjamesp

Could be in for an interesting few weeks:-

“Cut-Off Dates for literature to be considered for AR5”

"Working Group I Report - Papers submitted - 31 July 2012"

Will there be anything on “The Dendroclimatic Divergence Phenomenon”? CRU have had a research project on the subject running since Dec 09 due for completion in May this year.

Jul 6, 2012 at 9:34 AM | Registered CommenterGreen Sand


Parnell: "there is not a single cynic or voice of dissent to be found"

He obviously didn't see Paxman's sneering questions about it on Newsnight, or hear Jeremy Vine's phone-in on Radio 2, which gave airtime to a series of nutters with alternative theories about the universe.

Jul 6, 2012 at 8:06 AM | Unregistered CommenterTurning Tide

Dung @12:39 AM

IIRC, if you can fund it... the strategy of initially flooding the market with below cost product is quite an old ploy to get market share?

The gas market, particularly in the UK in my view - is rigged rotten.

The price of bottled propane has been jerked upwards massively in the last 2 years (with a corresponding FALL in the price of LPG/Propane AIUI) and British Gas have been playing games with domestic mains gas contracts...

Shale gas will I suspect get a rough ride in the UK because it's pricing will be transparent ... something that the gas retailers want to knacker at all costs....

Jul 6, 2012 at 2:12 AM | Registered Commentertomo

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