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Discussion > Natural Orbital Cycles, Solar Activity Cycles And Oceanic Cycles Are Mostly Driving The Climate

Geologist Dr. Norman Page left a comment which I’ve decided to upgrade to a post. In it he writes solar and La Nina observations fit well with his recent paper showing that climate is controlled by natural orbital and solar activity cycles.

Dr. Page is among a growing number of scientists who share the general view that natural solar and oceanic cycles are mostly driving the climate, just as they always have in the past.

Warming has already peaked, cooling ahead

And as a result, Dr. Page believes that the millennial temperature cycle peaked at about 2003/4 and the earth is now in a cooling trend, which will last until about 2650.
...
He also estimates the timing and amplitude of the coming cooling, writing: “If the real climate outcomes follow a trend which approaches the near term forecasts of his working hypothesis, the divergence between the IPCC forecasts and those projected by his paper will be so large by 2021 as to make the current, supposedly actionable, level of confidence in the IPCC forecasts untenable.”

NoTricksZone: More Research Points To “Temperature Decline In The Coming Decades And Centuries”

Dec 15, 2017 at 8:05 PM | Registered CommenterRobert Christopher

The impact of changes in solar activity on Earth’s climate was up to seven times greater than climate models suggested according to new research published today in Nature Communications.
Researchers have claimed a breakthrough in understanding how cosmic rays from supernovas react with the sun to form clouds, which impact the climate on Earth.

The findings have been described as the “missing link” to help resolve a decades long controversy that has big implications for climate science.
GWPF: New Study: Cosmic Rays, Solar Activity Have Much Greater Impact On Earth's Climate Than Climate Models Suggest

Dec 19, 2017 at 12:27 PM | Registered CommenterRobert Christopher

From the paper.

"From 2015 on, the decadal cooling trend is temporally obscured in the UAH temperature data by the recent El Nino. The El Nino peaked in February 2016. Thereafter to the end of 2019 we might reasonably expect a cooling at least as great as that seen during the 1998 El Nino decline in Fig. 4, or about 0.9 C."

This is the UAH data he is discussing.

His prediction means that the individual months in 2020 and their 13 month average, the red line on the graph, should be below 0 on the graph. Nice to see an easily testable prediction which can be shown or falsified. See you in three years time.

Dec 19, 2017 at 7:21 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

The impact of changes in solar activity on Earth’s climate was up to seven times greater than climate models suggested according to new research published today in Nature Communications.

I've read the paper. It makes no such claim.

Dec 20, 2017 at 6:12 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke