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Discussion > 24 Author Flood Impact Paper, 2013/14 southern England storms

(quicklink to last page of posts........ maybe WUWT or NotALot will also cover the issue)

May 25, 2016 at 8:24 AM @tomo
Impact of anthropogenic warming on southern England's 2013/14 winter floods quantified
"Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts" (PDF $$)

May 25, 2016 at 11:46 AM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

Entire Abstract : Nature Climate Change 6, 627–634 (2016) doi:10.1038/nclimate2927
Received 13 November 2015 Accepted 23 December 2015 Published online 01 February 2016
Main Authors : Nathalie Schaller (Oxfords U, Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics, and Environmental Change Institute )
.. Neil R. Massey (Oxfords U, Environmental Change Institute)
"all authors wrote the paper."

A succession of storms reaching southern England in the winter of 2013/2014 caused severe floods and £451 million insured losses.
In a large ensemble of climate model simulations, we find that, as well as increasing the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold, anthropogenic** warming caused a small but significant increase in the number of January days with westerly flow, both of which increased extreme precipitation.
Hydrological modelling indicates this increased extreme 30-day-average Thames river flows, and slightly increased daily peak flows, consistent with the understanding of the catchment’s sensitivity to longer-duration precipitation and changes in the role of snowmelt.
Consequently, flood risk mapping shows a small increase in properties in the Thames catchment potentially at risk of riverine flooding, with a substantial range of uncertainty, demonstrating the importance of explicit modelling of impacts and relatively subtle changes in weather-related risks when quantifying present-day effects of human influence on climate.
I bolded to show its modelling
** Anthropogenic ! May 25, 2016 at 9:44 AM Radical Rodent said : There is no other cause for the warming? Or is it only that warming which can be shown to be anthropogenic which causes the effect? Whichever you choose, it is not scientific.

May 25, 2016 at 11:55 AM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

Why so many authors ? scientists need name on max number of papers to get funding

May 25, 2016 at 12:04 PM | Nial
Guys, I believe that academic funding is increasingly dependent on the number of papers published etc. Hence the trend for anyone who's been remotely involved to get their name on a paper. I don't think this is restricted to climate science.

May 25, 2016 at 12:15 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

Remember some of the floods were storm surges

Particular events stand out. First, the storm on 5-6 December 2013 that generated what was widely referred to as 'the biggest storm surge for 60 years' and flooded 2,800 homes and 1,000 businesses. Second, the storm in early February that destroyed the Dawlish railway in Devon. Third, the dramatic 'Valentine's Day Storm', which placed the south coast under severe flood alert.

The fact that the damage was so limited during these storms, compared to the tragedy of 1953, is thanks to significant government investment in coastal defences, flood forecasting, sea-level monitoring and improved communications. However, 2.5 million people and £150 billion of assets are still at risk from coastal flooding in the UK today."

That's from A useful new database of UK Coastal Flood Events
"96 Flood Events Recorded At 40 Locations Since 1915"

May 25, 2016 at 12:25 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

stewgreen, if you have the time or inclination, do go for a walk along rivers and canals in your area, to view some comprehensive records of historic floods, carved into Lock Keepers Cottages, Bridges, Pubs etc.

The two biggest Thames floods that I am aware of were 1894 and 1947, and amateur historians have posted details and photos from Oxford, Reading, Henley, Maidenhead and Windsor, (try Google) and probably more on the non-tidal Thames. Try going for a walk in your area, because you can be certain that climate scientists and BBC reporters won't have, but their opinions get the maximum coverage.

May 26, 2016 at 2:09 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

The only thing this paper demonstrates is the paucity of common sense and intellectual rigour among climate scientists. There was nothing unusual or extreme about the run of westerly storms and rainfall which fell on the south-west of England in winter 2013-14. The total rainfall for that period was less than the average for a Scottish winter - all that happened was that the jet stream was further south than usual, hence the storm tracks also. This could have been due to some little understood solar magnetic effect, but it could also be down to simple natural variation, a concept which climate change disciples seem averse to consider when it comes to any recent weather related event, presumably because it doesn't generate any funding opportunities.

As GC suggests, historical records for the major UK rivers shows the recent floods in Somerset and Cumbria were nothing unusual.

May 26, 2016 at 8:09 AM | Registered Commenterlapogus

lapogus, there was major flooding in Jan 2003 in southern england, that followed 6-7? depressions in the previous month. 2003 was then a glorious summer. Weird weather? Yes! Unusual? No!

May 26, 2016 at 1:59 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie