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Discussion > Predictions for 2013

So what do people think we'll see in the climate world in the coming 12 months?

My predictions are :

1. With another flat year, the lack of warming will break through as a story in the MSM, with the BBC/Guardian axis going hell-for-leather to present apologist excuses for it as a pre-emptive strike.

2. At least one major player will jump sides to the skeptic position.

3. As the US economy recovers, the reason will become apparent that it is due to lower energy prices, and the case will be made more strongly here for fracking.

4. The numbers of Solar/wind proposals will drop to 50% of their current number by the year end.

Just for fun.

Dec 29, 2012 at 10:19 PM | Unregistered CommenterTheBigYinJames

1. John Kerry as Secretary of State will go for CAGW action like a bull at a gate, but will stuff up badly, as is his wont, and leave the alarmists grinding their teeth with egg on their faces.

2. Gillard and her cohorts The Greens will suffer a shattering defeat in the Australian election, to be followed by immediate repeal of the carbon tax.

3. Seeing the Australian result, Cameron will find some courage and water down the Climate Change Act, or if he doesn't have the numbers restructure DECC to get rid of the alarmist bureaucrats.

Dec 29, 2012 at 10:44 PM | Unregistered CommenterChris M

1) Cameron will agree to a referendum which includes an option to leave the EU

2) The EU will abandon its carbon reduction targets in order to avoid economic collapse

3) The UK coalition will be broken

4) RD will realise the error of his ways and become the best loved contributor on BH (ouch)

er um OK some of that was off topic ^.^

Dec 30, 2012 at 4:18 AM | Registered CommenterDung

My predictions are :

1. A hot summer appreciably hotter than 1976, combined with extensive power cuts, will be trumpeted in the MSM, with the BBC/Guardian axis emphasising it as a foretaste of climate change to come.

2. The Daily Mail will take leadership position in calling for action on climate change, with weekly editorials by King Charles III.

3. As the US, followed by the UK, initiates a major new programme of "Quantitive Easing", the first signs of impending hyperinflation appear and the price of gold reaches $4500/oz. Popular armed uprising in Dallas suppressed with helicopter gunships, napalm and execution of its leadership using drone weapons.

4. Solar/wind subsidies tripled to counter any falling off of renewables investment.

5. Professor Sir Phil Jones appointed President of the Royal Society, following Sir Paul Nurse's conviction and execution for closet Climate Change Denial.


Happy New Year!

Jan 1, 2013 at 9:31 AM | Registered CommenterMartin A

Environmentally Friendly Crystal Ball out...

I believe there is a three year latency with regards the juggernaut of CAGW; three years since CG1 and Copenhagen. Like a Super Tanker trying to stop.

It doesn't mean that CAGW is dead or even in abatement, certainly no retrenchment. It just means there is a super tanker full of greenies thinking about what to do next. It will not return to its mother port.

2013 will be a year of vulnerability for CAGW. A large tanker at dead stop looking for a course.

Gypsy Jiminy

Jan 2, 2013 at 7:35 AM | Unregistered CommenterJiminy Cricket

We learn from our opponents.
I expect to see you all back here in eleven months explaining why your hopelessly wrong predictions were, in fact, if properly interpreted, spot on.

Jan 3, 2013 at 7:29 AM | Registered Commentergeoffchambers

Well geoffchambers, I cannot speak for the other predicters but my own predictions projections will turn out to have been completely confirmed. They will be shown to have been within the margin of error of the model used to generate them, thus confirming them beyond dispute. Just as the Met Office's climate models have predicted the lack of warming since 1998.

Jan 3, 2013 at 8:08 AM | Registered CommenterMartin A

Based on Martin's observation, I'd like to add another prediction that by the end of the year, climate models will be modelling a 20 years haitus in the temperature upward trend. Then it will go up even faster than that at some epcified date in a year or two (or whenever the grant cycle allows)

Jan 3, 2013 at 8:14 AM | Unregistered CommenterTheBigYinJames

My models say this:

1. Al Gore will see criminal prosecution on the horizon.
2. Michael He-Mann will be embarrased enought by his own actions to go away for the rest of the year
3. Something will come out of Penn state, not sure what.
4. BBC will be forced to do a mea culpa so bad that the charter will be in dispute again
5. Royal Society will get a new leader with no climate affiliation probably from the astronomical field
6. Someone will write a hit-piece on Marc Morano
7. Chris Horner will get something good done this year too
8. a celebrity will come out after changing his/her mind and ask for an apology
9. Stephen McIntyre will get to go on a MSM program and explain the hockeystick to the greens (leading to point 2. perhaps)
10. Andrew Revkin (poor soul) will have had enough and turn with a decade strong vengance

So predictions are the same as hopes, right?


Jan 6, 2013 at 2:25 PM | Registered Commenternormalnew

Only for climate 'scientists' :)

Jan 6, 2013 at 4:37 PM | Unregistered CommenterTheBigYinJames

by the end of the year, climate models will be modelling a 20 years haitus in the temperature upward trend.
Not bad BYJ. See our host’s pointer to Tallbloke’s latest.

Jan 6, 2013 at 5:03 PM | Registered Commentergeoffchambers

I did see that, and commented on the speed of my prediction being fulfilled on Unthreaded!

I wonder what they have added into their model which wasn't there before to give this new curve.

Jan 6, 2013 at 5:17 PM | Unregistered CommenterTheBigYinJames