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The Russell review

I'm back in the saddle briefly. I've taken a look at the report and it looks pretty much as expected. The section on Ross McKitrick's allegation of fabrication makes for fairly jaw-dropping reading. I'm also intrigued by a section which deals with implied allegations rather than actual ones.

Nothing on the replacement of James Saiers at GRL either.

I'll add more comments as things occur to me. Feel free to add comments.

Update: Here's the bit on the fabrication allegation. Remember - the allegation is that Jones inserted a groundless statement that McKitrick's findings were "statistically insignificant". Here's what Jones said in his evidence to Russell:

The basis for this statement is that if the CRUTEM3 trend is reduced by the factor claimed by MM2004, the land-based record then becomes incompatible with the ocean and the satellite record. MM2004 make no mention of this in their paper. In writing Chapter 3 of AR4 the author team were mindful of this. MM2004‘s analysis of the land surface temperature record is completely at odds with the rest of the surface and lower tropospheric temperature records. MM2004 also fails to take into account the effects of changes in the atmospheric circulation.

And the panel said:

Having read most of the relevant papers... we observe a consistence of view amongst those who disagree with MM2004 that has been sustained over the last 6 years, that the large scale organisation of atmospheric circulation produces a spatially integrated response to forcing. Although we do not comment on the relative merits of the two views, we see no justification of the view that that this response was ―invented, or even that its various expressions in the response to reviewer Gray or the final text are fundamentally different.

 So Jones seems to have changed his argument from "McKitrick's findings are statistically insignificant" to "McKitrick's findings conflict with other evidence". Whether this is true or not is irrelevant of course. The fact remains that Jones has been unable to provide any support for the claim that was inserted in the IPCC text. This means that the allegation of fabrication stands. What is even more interesting, there seems to be an attempt to hide behind joint authorship - the finger of blame can't be pointed at Jones because everyone wrote the chapter.

The consequences are ugly: joint authorship implies joint and several responsibility for the text and allegation of fabrication that still hangs over it. I don't think this was what Sir Muir intended.

Who else is now implicated?


A break

I'm taking a break for a bit. I'll try to look in when the Russell Report comes out, but can't promise anything.

Be good while I'm away.


The auditor crosses the pond

Steve McIntyre has just posted a comment at CA saying that he's now going to attend the Guardian debate. Paying his own way too.

Why not hit the tip jar at CA and help him defray the costs?


A baseless attack on Leake

By strange coincidence, the story of an another attack on the Sunday Times' Jonathan Leake. An organisation called the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology (ESHRE) has emailed a number of journliasts claiming that Leake breached an embargo.

Click to read more ...


More Amazongate

Richard North has managed to get hold of two different versions of the IPAM report, which, you may remember, is the one the WWF says contains the scientific evidence for the claim that 40% of the Amazon is sensitive to slight changes in rainfall.

Neither of the two documents even mention the subject of the Amazon's sensitivity to rainfall.

This appears to be problematic for many people party to the row - Nepstad the scientist-cum-activist responsible for the claims, the WWF and of course dear old George Monbiot.

Read the whole thing.


Mann cleared

No surprise there then! The report is at the end of this post.

Night all.

Penn state clears Mann


Comments pagination

Sara in the comments asks whether I can set up the blog to have more comments per page. I certainly can, but what do others think? There's a balance to be struck between quick loading and having to go to a new page too often.


A late submission to Sir Muir

Mann et al have submitted a (very late) tale of woe to Sir Muir Russell's emails review. The signatories are a veritable who's who of hockey and this team's pucks are considerably out of kilter.

They need Sir Muir to protect them from harassment, they need Sir Muir to defend the "consensus" and they want Sir Muir to write off some of the evidence completely as not being in good faith. Oh yes, and does Sir Muir know they were harassed?

Give me strength.

Read it here.


More SciTech committee appointments

Via Farrah Bhatti's Twitter page come three more Labour party appointments to the Science and Technology Select Committee in the House of Commons. There has apparently been something of a struggle to find anyone else who is interested and the three late appointees are all from the new intake. Finally joining Andrew Miller and Graham Stringer are:

  • Pamela Nash (a former parliamentary researcher)
  • Gregg McClymont (a historian)
  • Jonathan Reynolds (professional politician)

The LibDems have yet to make their appointments to the panel.

(See also this interview with new committee chairman Andrew Miller, who says his priority for the new committee will be to maintain expenditure on science).


Nature on public relations

Reading more like a something from PR Week than a premier scientific journal, Jeff Tollefson's article in Nature describes how better PR is going to do the trick for the global warming movement.

At Climate Central, a non-profit organization based in Princeton, New Jersey, scientists work with journalists and writers to develop climate stories in partnership with media outlets. The idea came together in 2008, backed by high-profile scientists such as Jane Lubchenco, who oversees much of the nation's climate science as head the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

See also the accompanying editorial.


Fiona Fox on the Hockey Stick

Fiona Fox, who runs the (big-oil funded!) Science Media Centre has an article up at the BBC College of Journalism website. The thrust of the piece is that sceptics should be ignored. Nothing new there, I hear you say. However, her argument includes this take on the Hockey Stick.

Click to read more ...


Guardian debate

The Guardian is to host a debate on the Climategate affair on 14th July at RIBA in London. It will be presided over by George Monbiot and the speakers announced so far announced are:

  • Bob Watson
  • Fred Pearce
  • Doug Keenan

There are apparently more speakers to be confirmed.

If anyone would like to post a report, please drop me line.


Written questions to DECC ministers

Some written questions have been tabled for DECC ministers by our old friend Graham Stringer.

Graham Stringer: If the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change planning session in October 2010 will be conducted under the terms of the Aarhus Convention.

Graham Stringer: What proposed changes in the conduct of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments and procedures he plans at the IPCC planning session in October 2010.

Graham Stringer: What the name was of each representative of the Government who will attend the plenary session of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change in October 2010. 

These questions are all up for answer on 1 July 2010.

For those who don't know, the Aarhus Convention is an EU-wide agreement on the public availability of environmental information and which underpins the UK's Environmental Information Regulations.


Victorian temperature records

Some interesting analysis of the temperature records in the State of Victoria in Australia from Ken Stewart. The analysis seems to have been prompted by a statement by Australia's Bureau of Meteorology that adjustments to the raw station data should be random because they were fixing random station moves:

On the issue of adjustments you find that these have a near zero impact on the all Australian temperature because these tend to be equally positive and negative across the network (as would be expected given they are adjustments for random station changes).

Stewart has tested this and foundsomething rather different:

By these calculations (averaging the trend at each site) the raw trend is 0.35 degrees C per 100 years, and the [corrected] state trend is 0.83C.  That’s a warming bias of 133%!

Worth a look, I would say.

(H/T David Stockwell)



The baby bishops on ecoschools...

...and I didn't put them up to it either!