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« Jolly green giants toppled | Main | Déjà vu - Josh 364 »

Sea ice holds firm

This morning's story appears to be the hoary old "Arctic sea ice in freefall" one.

The Arctic is in crisis. Year by year, it’s slipping into a new state, and it’s hard to see how that won’t have an effect on weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere,” said Ted Scambos, lead scientist at the Colorado-based NSIDC.

As usual on these occasions, I take a quick look at the Cryosphere Today anomaly page, where I find the sea ice apparently still stuck firmly in "pause" mode.

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Reader Comments (278)

Not very good at this, really, are you Russell?

Apr 5, 2016 at 12:27 AM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

vvussell, have you checked Eli's link for evidence of the MWP or LIA? Or even a spell warm enough to have made the Franklin Expedition possible?

Eli's link looks more like Mann's Hockey Stick, but upside down. None of recorded history happened. Another triumph for climate science.

Tonight (monday) I missed a TV programme that confirmed the Vikings had been exploring modern USA about 500 yrs before Columbus. As the Vikings had been involved in an invasion of England in 1066, and had been raiding, attacking and settling in the British Isles before then, it seems likely they visited Greenland via Iceland even before the MWP that Eli, vvussell and Jim Hunt believe could not have happened because Lonnie Thompson and Mann said so. I suppose they decided then, that Greenland was too cold for comfort, found more land, and headed south/south west.

What a horribly tangled historical web, climate science has to weave, to deceive.

Sorry vvussell, I don't produce sufficient snowballs to qualify as a climate scientist. But Ellen Mosley-Thompson would have been glad to help out Mann, again, I expect.

Apr 5, 2016 at 12:38 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Radical Rodent, vvussell is one of the sharpest tools in climate science. This is quite a worry to those associates closest to him.

Apr 5, 2016 at 1:02 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

"Eli's link looks more like Mann's Hockey Stick, but upside down. None of recorded history happened. Another triumph for climate science."

Thank you for gargling on cue: as a matter of mere history, the blade of the hockey stick is the instrumental record itself.

Apr 5, 2016 at 2:31 AM | Unregistered CommenterRussell

Charlie, Eli wants tuna who RTFR. If you look at Fig 3 in Kinnard, et al, you see an Arctic Surface Air Temperature reconstruction which shows what you claim it does not. They also describe why the sea ice extent anomaly does not follow the SAT.

Be a good little tuna and read the paper.

Apr 5, 2016 at 3:32 AM | Unregistered CommenterEli Rabett

vvussell, who said anything about the blade? I was referring to the LIA MWP etc, but I suppose you have never heard of those.

Meanwhile, as you seem so keen on flawed science, were you aware that Lonnie Thompson and Ellen Mosley-Thompson are credited with being Advisers on Al Gore's Science Busting epic "An Inconvenient Truth"? A UK Court decided its lack of accuracy was such that it could not be shown to children as education.

This thread was about ice. Then Jim Hunt got involved, followed by Eli Rabett and then Russell Seitz. Eli was keen to show there was a paper claiming to show ice history for 1450 years, only it is unlikely this is possible, unless you believe in Mann's Hockey Stick, as neither show it would have been possible for Franklin to get lost in the North West Passage, and the LIA and MWP could not have happened. Eli's referred paper is co-authored by Lonnie Thompson, reknowned for not archiving data despite receiving a lot of taxpayer funding.

Ellen Mosley-Thompson helped Mann get around some inconvenient report writing deadlines, and was credited along with Lonnie Thompson with advising Gore on "An Inconvenient Truth" which must have been convenient.

Lonnie Thompson and Ellen Mosley-Thompson are well known at Climate Audit for not archiving data, so it is difficult for anyone else to check or verify their results, and much ice data references other previous Thompson work.

So with all due thanks to Russell Seitz for prompting me to write further we have Gore, Mann Mosley-Thompson and Thompson all linked, plus Eli and Seitz, with an interest in replacing recorded history with artificial fabricated history to preserve climate science's integrity.

That's All Climate Science Folks!
(brought to you be loocrative toons)

Apr 5, 2016 at 3:58 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Eli your paper is not from a source considered reliable.

Apr 5, 2016 at 4:01 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Golly, GC, do you get cable in that epistemic bubble of yours? Your insulation from inconvenient intrusions of reality is complete!

Apr 5, 2016 at 6:27 AM | Unregistered Commenterbill

Some more data has just become available, for those that take an interest in such mundane matters. The PIOMAS March 2016 daily Arctic sea ice volume numbers:

Does it look as though it’s “holding firm” to you?

Apr 5, 2016 at 7:50 AM | Unregistered CommenterJim Hunt

History is more reliable than computer adjusted climate science, and no one seems worried about the extent of sea ice anymore.

The polar bears will survive, ice experts may not. Greenpeace need to raise money to preserve the habitat of ice experts.

Apr 5, 2016 at 9:47 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie


…as a matter of mere history, the blade of the hockey stick is the instrumental record itself.
Precisely. And that is what makes it such a joke; the proxies were continued, but they showed a declining temperature. Something had to be done – “Hide the decline!” was the cry. “Mike’s nature trick” was applied, and the instrumental records were spliced onto the proxies.

Or is that a “matter of mere history” that you slumbered through?

Apr 5, 2016 at 10:00 AM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Radical Rodent, I wonder why it was necessary for Ellen Mosley-Thompson to get involved? I believe in Ice Hockey they need a special machine to polish the ice and smooth out troublesome grooves and ridges. Can you score an 'own goal' in Ice Hockey?

Jim Hunt, what do you expect anybody to do about it, that wasn't done in the 1850s? The polar bears are ok. No one is disputing the decline in ice since the satellite era began, but is it a death spiral? No. Was it a death spiral? Well no, no deaths, no spiral either.

The Sahara Desert is greener than at any time since the satellite era began. Should we spray weedkiller, to preserve it's desert status?

Apr 5, 2016 at 10:27 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Re: golf charlie Apr 5, 2016 at 10:27 AM

IYHO The Bishop is not "disputing the decline in ice" in his OP then? Personally I think it would be preferable if he stopped misrepresenting the available data "since the satellite era began".

Your mileage may vary of course.

Apr 5, 2016 at 10:37 AM | Unregistered CommenterJim Hunt

Jim Hunt, since the satellite era began, much has happened. It is a snapshot in time. You can increase the length of time by going back during the photographic era, and further still by going back through the era when man was able to chart and plot his position. Archaeology can trace evidence of mans presence even further.

If you take the trouble to read Wikipedia or other sources about HMS Investigator, she was found on the seabed precisely where she had been recorded, stuck in ice. I do not know whether this position was calculated using astronavigation, or simply by taking bearings from prominent bits of land visible at the time. As a simple snapshot in time, it is very interesting to note where that ship had sailed to, without icebreaking technology (an ice resistant hull) before getting 1caught and subsequently crushed. The crew did reach safety.

If the 1450 year chronology of sea ice that you and Eli refer to is to be believed, then how did HMS Investigator get there? I presume you would prefer to avoid alien abduction, and parachuted in from space theories.

Other advances in technology have started to find out more about Franklins expedition, and his ships. I am not out to bang a patriotic drum for Franklin, but what he did, and why it was possible, can not be swept from the historical record.

I would reiterate my previous comments about archiving data, and the miraculous ability to create a 1450 year ice history, that ignores historical fact, but does seem to conveniently support Mann's Hockey Stick.

When it comes to misrepresentation, would you like to reconsider any of the 'evidence' that climate science relies on? My personal opinion, is that some of it is a load of snowballs, and this is also being used to manipulate educational material.

Everybody makes mistakes, but climate science makes the most, since the satellite era began.

Apr 5, 2016 at 11:21 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Re golf charlie Apr 5, 2016 at 11:21 AM

That's a neat trick Charlie. Simultaneously erecting several straw men whilst attempting to teach Granny how to suck eggs!

Let's try and stick to the satellite era data referenced by Mr. Montford at the top of this page shall we?

Several people have now explained to you in a variety of different ways "Andrew's anomalous trick" to "Hide the decline!", Granny included.


Apr 5, 2016 at 11:37 AM | Unregistered CommenterJim Hunt

Jim Hunt

Is capiche supposed to mean something outside of American mafia gangster movies and climate science? If it is supposed to have some relevance to climate science, then WUWT may have been right to block your postings.

It must be very nice for you to find another blog to continue trying to raise panic, alarm and presumably funding.

You want to stick to satellite data, because it shows a scary story, you would rather hide the previous declines and recoveries that have occurred. If sea ice experts are no longer required, you could go into commercial strawman production.

Meanwhile the fiasco of Chris Turney and his 'ship of fools'. Covered by WUWT Climate Audit and many newspapers from all over the world, when a ship with journalists and family members masquerading as ice experts got stuck in ice had to be rescued, and then the rescuers needed rescuing,, even the UK Guardian newspaper is wary of ice scare stories.

How long should a Frozen Golden Goose be defrosted for, before it is ready for cooking?

Suggest you ask your granny what history is.

Apr 5, 2016 at 2:54 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie


Since the Satellite era began, huge areas of Saharan desert that were brown, have turned GREEN.

Green is an evil colour, and mass spraying with weedkiller is required urgently.

'Grow your own Climate Scientist kits now available' just add bullshyte and watch them go!

Apr 5, 2016 at 3:10 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Re: golf charlie Apr 5, 2016 at 2:54 PM

Evidently not.

Apr 5, 2016 at 5:37 PM | Unregistered CommenterJim Hunt

Why is the rodent trying to hide the decline every satellite in polar orbit sees?

Could he be one of the three blind mice?

Apr 5, 2016 at 10:10 PM | Unregistered CommenterRussell

Actually the satellite data shows that even with historical swings in Arctic sea ice not much at all happens to world climate. Since seals, polar bears and etc are doing pretty well if not great, we can enjoy the antics of the climate consensus as they prat away. Play on Jim et al. Their entertainment value is much higher than the cost

Apr 6, 2016 at 12:16 AM | Unregistered Commenterhunter

Ah, Russell; you really do need to read what is written, not what you think has been written – or, perhaps, what you think should have been written. So, the world has warmed a bit since the Little Ice Age; so, the Arctic ice cap has reduced a little … erm … so what? All changes to date have been beneficial; what evidence (other than your own beliefs) is there that catastrophe is looming? Countries soon to be inundated? No, sorry; those countries forecast to drown are actually growing, in area, population and wealth. Droughts causing “desertification” (who knew there could be such a word?)? Sorry, but the Earth is actually greening. Floods washing people away? Oh, dear; wrong again. The only damage that is being done is in the attempts to “ameliorate” the threats, as people freeze due to energy-poverty; people choke on smoke as they are not allowed cheap electricity; countryside are ruined by erection of grotesque monstrosities that not only despoil beautiful views, but slice and dice and fry birds, and blow bats lungs apart. While I confess that I will be influenced by my own biases and prejudices, I do attempt to overcome them, and at least try to view alternative views dispassionately. Let the scales drop from your own eyes before you point out other’s flaws.

Yes, Mr Hunt, keep up your observations, formulate and test hypotheses, but act like a scientist, and do not – do NOT – allow half-baked ideas to wreck what humanity has taken so many centuries to create for some misty-eyed political ideals. All right, what we have may not be perfect, but history shows that evolution is so much better than revolution.

Apr 6, 2016 at 12:58 AM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

hunter, they will represent even better value for money and entertainment, if their costs to taxpayers come down.

It doesn't seem as though Global Warming is a hot issue in US Politics at the moment, and this possibility is the biggest threat to lifestyles, so far identified by sea ice experts and other Alarmists, as even Clinton has gone a bit lukewarm, as issues of integrity seem more important at the moment.

Apr 6, 2016 at 1:51 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

The satellite photo intel on ice extent does not give a damn about the radical dispassion with which the resident rodent refuses to acknowledge it.

Not even a capybara is entitled to his own facts.

Apr 6, 2016 at 3:04 AM | Unregistered CommenterRussell

@Russell - You beat me to it! Don't try pointing that out over at (un)Real Science though. The denizens become terribly rude.

@Hunter/RR - Thanks for your permission. Why don't you try to "act like a scientist", and "at least try to view alternative views dispassionately"? Here once again are some alternative views of the CT area data Mr. Montford quotes at the top of this page:

Claim – Arctic Sea Ice Holds Firm?

You have my permission to view them dispassionately.

Apr 6, 2016 at 9:08 AM | Unregistered CommenterJim Hunt

Mr Hunt: thank you. I have. I also added the following comment, just to make it interesting:

Yes. The sea ice is still holding firm. Okay, it has reduced a bit since measurements began at the end of the, “We are heading into another ice age!” scare; perhaps the ice extent was rather high, then. Certainly, there seems to be no threat of there being no ice at all, as we have been so confidently assured by the more vociferous. Compare the average limit of the ice 1898 – 1913 with the average limit 1981 – 2010 (all right – it is labelled “median”, but it is the best on offer).
While I did not mention it on The Great White Con site, it is interesting to note that the older average ice extent line does seem to be further north than the newer one (e.g. starting near the northern tip of Novaja Zemlja, while the 1981 – 2010 line encloses that island).

While most of the comments seem to be moaning about the connection, my comment is still awaiting moderation, but feel free to rip it apart on here.

Apr 6, 2016 at 10:35 AM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Russell: thank you for your oh-so-scientific response. Now, point to where I have refused to acknowledge … erm … it (whatever “it” might be).

Mr Hunt: if the denizens of (un)Real Science are like that, be grateful you have this site, then. While there are a few who can become rather… well, let’s just call it “over-exuberant”… in their arguments, should I see them becoming too personal, I do try to call them back into line, though I am not a moderator. The Bishop does allow remarkably free rein in the comments; I am sure that if he did not, there would soon be bellows of, “Censorship!”

Apr 6, 2016 at 10:53 AM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Russell, Jim Hunt

Do not let Radical Rodent and golf charlie divert you into a flame war. When you stick to the science they cannot compete, and they know it.

Apr 6, 2016 at 11:53 AM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

@EM - Can you provide any convincing evidence, preferably in the form of a peer reviewed article in a reputable academic journal, that Russell and I are being successfully "divert[ed] into a flame war"?

@RR - With your permission I'll rip it apart over there. Unlike here, with a modicum of technical nous it is possible to display images in comments.

N.B. My multi-link comment concerning the Northwest Passage still seems to be invisible on here?

Apr 6, 2016 at 12:23 PM | Unregistered CommenterJim Hunt

Interesting comment, Entropic man. It would be nice to know where Russell started with his scientific arguments.

I have never fully understood what a “flame war” is, but if it means discussing the evidence of the case, which I have endeavoured to do, despite the goading, then it seems an odd idea, especially if it is to be avoided. Open debate does seem to be something that many of the Believers try to avoid; are you advocating that it be similarly avoided on this site? If Russell, Mr Hunt, or even yourself, could clarify why the slight dip in the Arctic ice that we have had over the past 35 years is going to lead us into catastrophe, I would be interested to hear. In doing so, you could at least allow me the courtesy of questioning what you seem to hold as evident.

Apr 6, 2016 at 12:23 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Mr Hunt: I suspect that there is a limit to the number of links that you can have in any one comment before it gets diverted as “spam”. What that limit is, I am afraid I do not know.

Apr 6, 2016 at 12:35 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Well, it looks like all Charlie the Tuna and Radical Rat have to say are ad noms.

Apr 6, 2016 at 12:46 PM | Unregistered CommenterEli Rabett

What is a flame war anyway?

It just seems that the normal suspects intend to suppress evidence that makes their manipulated evidence seem impressive.

Typical climate science. Unreliable, and not to be trusted.

Perhaps Eli and Jim can advise on their censorship policies, and whether that has any reason for their lack of visitors. It seems that climate science depends on suppressing free speech, but has now to find blogs with a more liberal approach, in order to shout a lot about personal attacks.

Hockey Team rules do not apply, for Away games. Maybe you ought to give up on Hockey Team rules and learn something new.

Apr 6, 2016 at 1:12 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Whatever an “ad nom" is, could you please point me to an example of where I have resorted to one?

Apr 6, 2016 at 1:30 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Golf Charlie: please do not try to put Mr Hunt in the same hutch as Eli Rabett. We do not want to embarrass Mr Hunt with the link, as he does appear to be one who is genuinely concerned about what he perceives is happening with his own area of study/interest. I feel that he might have been caught in the rush to condemn “outsiders” who question what so many in his field are prepared to shout as “settled”. Hopefully, even if you and I are wrong, and Pickering, Buxton and Pontypridd are soon to become seaside resorts, we might have given him cause to pause and reconsider his stance.

Apr 6, 2016 at 1:43 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Radical Rodent, yes you are correct. I fully appreciate that many people are concerned about sea ice, as their livelihoods depend on it. Many modern Inuit find their petrol engined snowmobiles do not work on snowless landscapes, but fortunately the speed and power of petrol engined outboard engines enables them to zoom around in their modern plastic, metal and rubber boats far quicker than in traditional paddled craft made out of bits of whale and seal skin.

Their modern prefabricated houses, with heating, and non solid water supplies are not as relocatable as igloos, but they don't melt in summer, and schooling is more accessible for their children.

If snow and ice does cycle back to levels not seen before the satellite record began, some of them may struggle to survive in a harsher climate, without reliable fossil fuels, and they may have to revert to slaughtering whales, porpoises, bears seals etc just to survive. If people will not allow them to live their natural lives, they will starve and/or die of cold, but the Green Blob will be proud of their achievement in preserving the arctic wilderness.

Eli will srug his shoulders in his comfortable heated warren, and deny all responsibility, as his Hockey Team financial support network depends on it.

Apr 6, 2016 at 2:36 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Re: Radical Rodent Apr 6, 2016 at 1:43 PM

Thank you for your kind (albeit condescending) words. I note that you're not putting up much of a fight as I rip your argument apart.

Re: golf charlie Apr 6, 2016 at 1:12 PM

I ripped off RRs. My gaff, my rules.

Re: golf charlie Apr 6, 2016 at 2:36 PM

Given your understandable concern for the modern Inuit, you will no doubt find this video extremely enlightening:

Apr 6, 2016 at 4:31 PM | Unregistered CommenterJim Hunt

Jim Hunt, carry on trying to rip people off, and being proud of it, if it makes you feel better, but it might be better if you sought sympathy elsewhere.

Apr 6, 2016 at 5:10 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Mr Hunt: apologies for appearing condescending, it is just so refreshing interacting with one many perceive as from “the other side” who does not resort to invective and insult quite as quickly as others. As for not putting up much of a fight, I am sorry, but I am not rooted to the computer; odd as it might seem, I do have another life.

GC: chill out, dude! At least Mr Hunt is prepared to debate.

Apr 6, 2016 at 5:41 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Radical Rodent, it is amazing how worrying about ice, causes some people to overheat, though over confidence about the lack of ice, led to the death of Franklin and his men, Chris Turney and his 'Ship of Fools' put countless innocent lives at risk, and yet still people carry on.

We need Goldilocks to determine the right temperature, not too hot or too cold, because otherwise the polar bears won't eat their porridge. Or something.

Apr 6, 2016 at 5:55 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Jim, I started as a climate crisis believer. 'Twas dispassionate thinking that allowed me to see the apocalyptic nonsense you still hold to for the ridiculous claptrap it is.

Apr 6, 2016 at 9:52 PM | Unregistered Commenterhunter

Re: golf charlie Apr 6, 2016 at 5:10 PM

Instead I think I'll rip your argument apart as well:

The Northwest Passage in 2016

Re: Radical Rodent Apr 6, 2016 at 5:41 PM

Thanks for your kind words. Strange to relate, I have another life too.

Apr 7, 2016 at 12:08 AM | Unregistered CommenterJim Hunt

good luck with job hunt.

Apr 7, 2016 at 2:49 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Thanks very much for your kind words Charlie, assuming your Apr 7, 2016 at 2:49 AM was directed at yours truly.

However I am my own boss.

Re: hunter Apr 6, 2016 at 9:52 PM

Please see my recent "skeptical" response to Radical Rodent:

You may find the Feynman video helpful?

Apr 7, 2016 at 7:07 AM | Unregistered CommenterJim Hunt

RR and golf Charlie.

All these threats of ripping.

Does Jim Hunt have delusions of being Wolverine?

Is that his other life?

Apr 8, 2016 at 9:49 AM | Unregistered CommenterAlan Kendall

Alan Kendall Apr 8, 2016 at 9:49 AM

No it isn't. In actual fact I much prefer to dress up in a frilly white frock in order to masquerade as a fairy tale princess. For the inside scoop on all the sordid details please see:

Snow White is Actually a “Cowardly Cross Dresser”!

In order to avoid the malicious “spammer” label attached to me by Steven Goddard of “Real Science” fame many moons ago I have been using the nom de guerre “Snow White” in skeptical circles for a while. Unfortunately my pseudonimity didn’t stand a chance against the laser sharp investigative skills of Anthony Watts. My embarrassment is now archived in the public record, plain for all to see.

Apr 8, 2016 at 11:39 AM | Unregistered CommenterJim Hunt

Oh god!
Jim Hunt is slasher doll CHUCKY but still thinks he's a SNOW WHITE doll, run for your lives!

Apr 8, 2016 at 12:10 PM | Unregistered CommenterAlan Kendall

Careful, Mr K: what might seem to be the epitome of witty repartee in your mind can sometimes translate into poorly-received insults in the written word – as I have found out when ribbing you! Even Golf Charlie flunks almost as often as he entertains.

(Hey! I’ve just realised that we all assume GC to be male – is that because of the word “Charlie” in the chosen name? Perhaps; but, while “Charlie” in this case is merely used as it is in the international phonetic alphabet, and her real name is Gwendoline Caroline, “Charlie” is also an accepted female name, nowadays. I do hope we are not causing GC too much anguish in our assumptions.)

Apr 8, 2016 at 11:20 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Radical Rodent, fortunately the NATO phonetic comes out as Golf Charlie, I am male, not a complete charley, and I don't play golf!

I do have the ability to recite my NATO phonetic alphabet and simultaneously 'sign' it using British Sign Language. I have yet to work out a possible use for this 'skill', as one was designed for radio communication, and the other definitely wasn't!

I learned (very) basic sign language in connection with work, but this dual skill makes me instantly recognisable to anybody else, so I keep quiet about it.

I do recommend looking up 'bsl bullshit' on google. You may have signed it accidentally before, but once known, crossing your arms in contempt or anger, can become quite satisfying. The American version is the same.

Apr 9, 2016 at 12:56 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie


Why am I being offered so much advice and from all sorts of people (many of whom don't even use their real names)?

Am I somehow advertising my needyness or am I being groomed for better things?

Nurtured is what I am.

I'm so glad we didn't cause gC anguish. All those years of potential gender issues, it doesn't bear thinking about - so I won't.

Apr 9, 2016 at 5:01 AM | Unregistered CommenterAlan Kendall

Alan Kendall, I believe your Granddaughter did warn you about sinister grooming on this site

Climate scientists like to groom with their dire warnings of terrible consequences. After more than 20 years, the weather has turned out nice again.

No climate scientist has yet matched the Biblical Joseph, with his lifesaving forecasts of good harvests being followed by bad harvests. I am waiting for a climate scientist to be awarded a Technicolour Dreamcoat in recognition of accuracy.

Apr 9, 2016 at 2:52 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

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