Wednesday
Jan202016
by 
Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill Quote of the day, sound science edition
Jan 20, 2016 Climate: IPCC Quotes ...can you guys fill in the "look at the impacts we're already seeing" part with a bunch of examples? In addition to the scientifically sound examples you'll give it would also be good for me to get an updated list of extreme events that are plausibly climate related.
US climate envoy Todd Stern reaches out beyond the scientifically sound
Via Chris Horner.
Reader Comments (18)
He's only asking for the plausible.
He isn't asking for the actual.
At least he knows that newsworthy Anthropogenic Global Warming is all about what people believe and not any physical realty.
Intersting choice of "plausibly" - would the test be either "beyond reasonable doubt" or might it be "on the balance of probability"?
perhaps - "give me something that isn't immediately lame and is awkward and time consuming to rebut" ....
What are the "scientifically sound examples "?
This is all about 'plausible deniability' (see Wikip)
Throw in some good juicy scare stories that scientists can then deny ever having made, and politicians can then blame on 'the best information available at the time'.
Muck raking, without liability for being wrong. Sums up climate science to a Hockey Stick.
He's not asking for - "extreme events that are plausibly AGW related", he's asking for "extreme events that are plausibly climate related"
That'll make compiling the list much easier.
Here's a short list, but its not really just for "already happening", but for the warmunists, is there really a difference between ".0001% chance of happening sometime in the next 1,000 years" and "is" happening (mostly in models)?
http://numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm
It appears to me Mr. Stern is looking for new ammo; he believes there are examples and he wants to have them so he can use them.
Presuming Mr. Stern is a member of the Obama Administration, I would expect nothing less.
He's reaching for the plausible disasters now because they already used up most of the less plausible ones.
When do we get to find out how many climate science activists were only too happy to respond?
This is the type of scientific accuracy so beloved of the BBC.
Why surely he can just feel that extra 0.3K increase in his own lifetime on his body. Who needs more?
so there are TWO climate nutters with the name Stern ??
The UK has one the US has one
VenusCold, hopefully someone called Stern will have a large chunk of his contribution to climate science binned. Binning the output of two Sterns would reduce the margins of error, and provide a higher level of confidence.
A scientifically sound method of identifying climate impacts is to use the basic science to predict them before they happen. Now with the complex and chaotic interrelationships that make up climate one would not expect to get all the predictions correct, but a few successes would be nice, so we might compare performance against a dumb prediction model. Last year I challenged expert physicist aTTP on this matter. Seems I have not got the method of evaluation quite right. From his comments it appears predictive success is irrelevant to evaluating science from pseudo-science. It is more about prejudiced ranting against anyone who deigns to question that climate is anything less than on a par with pure fizzicks. Perhaps aTTP might forward his recommendation of John Cook's Denial 101x course to Todd Stern so that he might properly understand that true understanding of climate impacts comes not from mere facts, but from agreeing with the expert pontifications of psychology and history of science professors.
Doesn't he know?
Just in Canada, the effects have been devastating- Children are playing in Paris fountains! Russia has dried mud fields. Canada has buildings that were collapsed in the 1980's.
Hat tip Steve McIntyre.
It's a publicity ploy by Todd.
After all, DiCaprio himself knows... as we all do. There is no need for examples when everything you sample tells you the same thing. Go outside, pick a rock, there is climate change.
Someone point him to John Brignell's NumberWatch, then we can all have a laugh.
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm
"... extreme events that are plausibly climate related.
I consider shipping North Carolina forests to North Yorkshire to fit this description.