One of the main things we learned from the recent UK General Election was that the forecasters got it catastrophically wrong - catastrophic in that the pollsters reputations are now in shreds. The collective narrative was that it had to be a hung parliament, nothing else was possible - even Nate Silver agreed so it had to be true.
Yet how wrong they were.
Not everyone was wrong - Dan Hodges got it about right, as did Janet Daley, and I am sure there were others.
It is horriblly like that other consensus - the one that always has to be 97% and which we all know is also catastrophically wrong.
H/t to Paul Matthews whose excellent blog post has the reference to voters hiding in the deep ocean.