Sunday
Sep292013
by 
Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill The startling foolishness of David Cameron
Sep 29, 2013 Climate: Parliament 
Take a look at this quote from our prime minister, Mr Cameron:
It’s worth looking at what this report this week says – that [there is a] 95 per cent certainty that human activity is altering the climate. I think I said this almost 10 years ago: if someone came to you and said there is a 95 per cent chance that your house might burn down, even if you are in the 5 per cent that doesn’t agree with it, you still take out the insurance, just in case.”
Do you see how he equates strong certainty that mankind is affecting the climate with strong certainty that this means disaster? This is a statement of such startling foolishness that it almost defies belief to hear it from someone who wields such power.
Reader Comments (75)
The adjective 'dim' and the phrase 'as a Toc H lamp' come to mind........:0)
I'm a backwoods Tory. When I die you will find, "Maggie" engraved on my heart. She may have been wrong about global warming when in power, but after retirement she recanted much of what she had done. Since 2010, Cameron has left no stone unturned to display his foolishness to the World. It's worth remembering that this piece of primary school foolishness has been fed to him by the warmist establishment and reinforced by his wife, He is the sort of person who learns nothing and forgets nothing, Reason and Logic don't stand a chance. His most notable achievement to date is to halve the volunteer party membership. The man is a disgrace to Maggie's memory and an embarrassment to the Tory Party at large.
Call me Dave needs to follow that up with the cost of the premiums and the extent of any payout.
I wonder if he has seen the 50:1 video: http://topher.com.au/50-to-1-video-project/
Cameron is the best advertisement for UKIP I can think of!
There's probably Sam Cam telling him what to say on behalf of FoE.
The whole field depends on mushing categories and significances into a ball of meaningless pseudo intent
Once you see there is no desire to adhere to consistent comparative metrics - anywhere - and all the while at the same time pretending to be followers of scientific principles - then the comedy should be become clear. This isn't a sign of strength. There is a current hegemony of metro alarmist idiots, but this is something that just needs dispassionate clinical documenting during its inevitable fall. ;)
Current green plans are like insurance... PPI. You don't think you need it, you're sure you don't want it, somebody else is making you pay for it and if the worst happens it'll be absolutely useless.
Lol. Yeah, and be ready for your eternal spam and phone calls once they tell you, you were mi-sold for ever after :)
"even if you are in the 5 per cent that doesn’t agree with it, you still take out the insurance, just in case.”
Not when the insurance premium is more than the actual value of your house
You don't amputate your head off if you got an ear ache
The preening emperor, with slightly less than opaque clothing...
So someone comes and says "I'm 95 % certain you are going to be impaled by a flying pink unicorn, but luckily I just happen to have flying pink unicorn insurance for sale for the rock bottom of price of 95% of your current salary every year until you die." Cameron would buy it.
I have to say I am gobsmacked that so many people in journalism and politics do not realise that the 95% figure is about the past rather than the future. I had not anticipated this would need explaining to people.
First party dire and theft insurance
If the Cameroon knew this 10 years ago, why is he still hugely funding the Met Office, Hadley Centre etc?
Good point Matt Ridley
past performance is no guarantee of future results
and the '95%' number is purely subjective plucked out of the air so that numbskulls like Cameron will take comfort that their idiotic policies are based on some sort of scientific platform. As has been noted, the game the IPCC is playing is to get the politicians (aided and abetted by the BBC et al) to start spouting 'the science is settled nonsense' and calling citizens that question their nonsense 'flat-earthers', so they can continue on their crusade to return the developed world to an agrarian society. It is not going to happen in part due to the good offices of people such as you, Matt Ridley.
Keep up the good work
PS where did you find that picture Bish? Looks like he is trying to add 2 to 6 and has run out of fingers!
As I pointed out with respect to Lord Deben when he used the same argument at
Cameron adds an extra layer of stupidity to his argument by asserting that even if you don’t agree, you’re bound to agree.http://geoffchambers.wordpress.com/2013/03/06/lord-deben-and-his-pals/
the fire insurance argument shows a startling ignorance, not only of climate change, but also of of how insurance works.
But aren't the 3 main leaders all as bad as each other?
Cameron may be sold on agw but he's nothing compared to the stark-raving climate bonkers Clegg, and Miliband E is more responsible for high energy prices than any single person in the UK, having pushed through the CC Act when Energy minister.
As others have said, for this reason (never mind a dozen other issues that would be O/T) alone it's UKIP.
"This is a statement of such startling foolishness ...": if anyone who lived through the Blair years finds such foolishness at all startling, he must not have been paying attention.
Why does anyone expect anything more than PR puff from a PR man?
If there was a 95% chance of your house burning down, only an idiot would insure you. And only an even bigger idiot would suggest that you search for such an idiot. And it would require an even bigger idiot to believe him.
Remember, all he cares about are votes. As glubull warming vanishes with the sunspots he will adjust his story. At least Osborne gets it.
Did Bob Ward say "if someone came to you and said there is a 95 per cent chance that teenagers might break a window in your house, even if you are in the 5 per cent that doesn’t agree with it, you still hire 24-hour security just in case."
People like Alistair Campbell and his ilk decided many years ago that we, the public, are thick, only have attention spans lasting mere seconds and must have simple phrases repeated often. Of course he was wrong, just thought he knew better, as always.
Therefore politicians no longer "do" nuance at all. That explains the apparent conundrum - that they are all terribly well educated, mainly posh, from the higher ups, but sound like idiots every time they open their mouths.
What david Cameron is implying here is that if someone told him
there was a 95%chance that his house would burn down, he would
believe it and take out insurance.
Does he not have advisers whose job it is to stop him from putting
his own foot in his mouth.
Roger Longstaff,
I'm not so sure it's quite that simple. So much has been invested in this that he'd find it hard to drop it, especially since there are so many influential bodies supporting it e.g. the BBC. The best he'll do is a toning down of it. It also ties in with the EU.
Conceivably, the Conservatives in opposition with a new leader could drop it completely, but once again, it ties in with the EU and that's a subject where the Conservatives have never had a clear and honest view and have peddled a completely dishonest reform line for years.
Yup, it's people like 'our Dave' who keep those insurance companies going that try to sell you 'extra cover' when you buy a £10 toaster, for just £30 a year!!
No wonder government spending is so vast.
Steve McIntyre,
In that case Bob Ward is wasted where he is. He should become a salesman for 24 hour security services. With a patter like that how could he fail?
Well, apart from the fact that 24 hour security services cost a fortune in comparison to replacing a window, and anyway, most people would want a better reason to believe the risk existed than the words of a honey-tongued rascal like Ward.
I know how you can be 95% certain of winning the lottery; does anyone
want to know how much it will cost?
Is Cameron typical of an Eton education or is he a one off A*** H***?
If someone came to you and said there is a 95 per cent chance that your house might burn down unless you hand over your wallet to them - you pay up, just in case !
or more realistically
If someone came to you and said that in 500 years time there is a 95 per cent chance that your house might burn down unless you go and live in a tent in the garden and eat vegetables. What do you do ?
George Osborne might appear to "get it" but that didn't stop him upping the carbon tax in the last budget.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/9150665/UK-carbon-tax-will-leave-British-companies-uncompetitive-warns-Energy-Select-Committee-chairman-Tim-Yeo.html
"Mr Osborne is this week expected to reveal an increase in the “top-up” tax faced by UK power generators for their carbon emissions under the Carbon Price Floor, meaning British business could face significantly higher costs than those in Europe."
Not a chance, IMHO. Even now Cameron and Osborne are re-writing their conference speeches to scrap "green taxes". (I hope!)
So is he saying the purpose of insurance is to prevent an accident or catastrophic event?
I know of no insurance company that advertises on that basis, and I suspect if there were one, the regulators would be very interested.
Can you imagine? Give us your money and you won't have a fire.
Cameron appears tired and devoid of any new ideas apart from upsetting his own backwoodsmen ( of which I am not). He had a golden opportunity here to take on the IPCC and confound Ed Miliband's price fixing gamble of last week by stating quite clearly that fracking would bring down bills as they have done in the US. It is only his own hubris which stops him making a U turn and it will be interesting to see if Osborne takes a clear line on energy. Both main parties UK could well lose their pygmy leaders before the general election of 2015.
David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband should remember the 3 little pigs story........
Not to mention Dave's idiocy regarding trying to keep another housing bubble (collapse in land affordability) from popping.
He's obviously been taking lessons in stupidity from Ed Davey. Two peas in a pod.
What would the premium for an insurance policy against something with a 95% chance of happening?
It would probably be cheaper just to deal with it when it happens then you avoid the insurance industry costs + profit. Only a person whose objective was to feed the insurance industry with other people's money would bother to insure against a near certainty.
John M
There are some insurance companies that work on that basis but I don't think they care very much what the regulator thinks. The police, yes - provided you can get anyone to talk.@Roger - it's already happened, it was in this year's budget.
Dear Mr Cameron
If you had to pay billions of pounds on insurance… Sorry I’ll start again, if the people you are meant to represent, had to pay billions of pounds on insurance against catastrophic climate change, wouldn’t you, as their leader, have a really good look at the science yourself? It would only take you half an hour on the internet, looking in the right places!.
Then perhaps, you may be in a better position to help the humble people you are supposedly "doing your best for" from paying these enormous and unnecessary sums. In doing so, by changing a policy or two, you could even save the lives of a few, fuel poverty stricken people at the same time.
Oh, by the way, I guarantee 100% the UK has had a downward trend of temperatures for the last 20 years. Well, according to the data available at the UKMO. (UKMO is the United Kingdom Meteorological Office, just in case you were not aware of that acronym)
Martyn wrote
Is Cameron typical of an Eton education or is he a one off A*** H***?
Hopefully just a one/few off. I know one or two OEs who are sceptics - self included...
And they wonder why people are going to vote UKIP??!!
Obviously he had the advantage of a classical education.
Quite right Mr. Cameron--finally someone who gets it. And since we understand each other, can I be the one who sells you the policy? It costs more than your annual income, does nothing to protect your house and pays nothing in the event of fire. Where should I send the paperwork?
NeilC, you say "I guarantee 100% the UK has had a downward trend of temperatures for the last 20 years. Well, according to the data available at the UKMO".
I am aware that UK temperatures have been falling for several years, but do you have a reference for 20 years?
Call me Dave should take a long & hard look at what happened in tbe Australian general election. Clinging onto manifestly false and bad greeny/warmist policies is electoral suicide.
Roger
Yes, the CET as administered by the UKMO. I have plotted each year from 1974 (when the MO assumed responsibility for the record) to 2012 (last full year) if you do this you will also find there has been a downward trend each year since 1992.
Roger
Its in unfriendly .txt format but what do you expect, a nice easy .xls file!
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html
That 95% certain does that mean that in every 100 universes there are 95 in which humans cause global warming and in 5 they do not?