Monday
Dec302013
by 
Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill Akademic shambles
Dec 30, 2013 Greens The travails of the green climatologists on board the Akademik Shokalskiy have been providing us all with a lots of fun over the last few days. I've been a bit busy painting the office, so haven't been posting, but there's an excellent roundup over at WUWT.
With the latest rescue attempt having been postponed, prospects for the ship to escape the ice are not looking too good at present, although fortunately an air evacuation is available as a backup option. We will have to wait and see how things go. But in the meantime one can appreciate the sheer majesty of the propaganda failure that Prof Turney and his colleagues have achieved.
Reader Comments (172)
The Guardian has the latest
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/31/antarctic-rescue-helicopter-to-evacuate-passengers-from-trapped-ship
attacking Andrew Neil for his climate scepticism and quoting climate scientist Chris Turney on how it’s due to the wrong sort of ice caused by climate change.
But the article isn’t on their climate change pages, for some reason.
Of course not, Geoff, in fact it should have been in the travel section. Didn't you get the memo? It's a tourist expedition that went wrong due to unfortunate and unavoidable circumstances.
My Russian isn't too good, but I'm guessing the ship's name translates as "Shonky Academics"- is that right?
The Daily Mail's take starts with promise but then gets sympathetic and fails to mention that the BBC have funded at least one 'passenger' on this embarrassing expedition.
Global warming scientists forced to admit defeat... because of too much ice: Stranded Antarctic ship's crew will be rescued by helicopter
Jo Nova has this update:
Meanwhile back in Europe, I am staggered at Prof Anne Glover's (EU Chief Scientific Adviser) recent tweet "Although Antarctic sea ice decreasing, Arctic sea ice up from record low http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/CryoSat/Arctic_sea_ice_up_from_record_low … " Source: https://twitter.com/EU_ScienceChief
Does Prof Glover not know that Antarctic Sea Ice areal extent has been above 30 year average levels for a number of years now, and that it broke satellite-era records this year? It is disappointing (but not surprising) that Glover appears to be just as ill-informed about climate science now that she works for Baroso in Brussels, as she was when she was the Chief Scientific Adviser for Salmond here in Scotland.
According to the latest article at WUWT, it’s going to taked 5 helicopter trips (landing on ice) to the Chinese ship, then three barge trips to the Australian ship, to get all the passengers off. Then didn’t I read somewhere that the Australian ship would drop them off at another base in Antarctica?
The ladies shown in a video playing scrabble were not young. You have to feel sorry for them.
Geoff Cruikshank, Shokalskiy was a distinguished Russian academic (hence the name) who specialised in polar research.
Johanna
Yes, yes, but allow me to fantasize.
No disrespect intended to the distinguished chap.
The relevant Daily Fail article comments have been on lockdown for days preventing me from posting my sympathies, I didn't think they had a dog in this race. Perhaps they just don't have enough servers to cope with this scale of mirth.
Geoff Chambers, the Sydney Morning Herald did get the memo. They have a story about how the poor diddums are bearing up in their Travel section:
http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-incidents/antarctic-ship-passengers-to-be-evacuated-by-helicopter-20131231-3041j.html#ixzz2p2NUmksd
"Professor Turney has said morale remains high on the ship as passengers and crew continue their work as best they can and distract themselves with yoga, photography and language classes."
Mawson and his colleagues must be turning in their graves.
NW
"One trying to claim that the carbon footprint of the whole thing is "less than a day at Heathrow". How many on the boat compared with the number of people passing through Heathrow in a day, I don't think so."
Well that's an interesting claim to make given that there are 70million passengers a year through Heathrow...
By a rough calculation that's more than a million per week which makes, very roughly, 200,000 passengers per day.
Not bad going for 72 greens.....
All back of a postage stamp rough calculations of course..
Very happy for a more detailed analysis to correct my failings.
It’s pretty weird how this is developing into the make-or-break story for the whole CAGW movement. A few hardworking campaigners have been beavering away for years trying unsuccessfully to bring to the public’s notice the dodginess of the science behind global warming hysteria, and now it seems the future economic and energy policy of the western world depends on the fate of a few tourists and media people stuck in the Antarctic ice.
However it plays out, the heroes will be Chinese pilots and Russian seamen, and the villains/victims/fools will be Western scientists and journalists.
The media are not going to like that. Expect a nasty backlash once it’s all over. I’ve had a good chuckle with the rest of you at jokes about Professor Christmas Turkey of the Clitanic and the tastiness of a dish of Alok Jha. We’ll be made to pay for our fun on Twitter and at Guardian Environment when the penguins come home to roost.
Still, it’s been a good laugh so far.
Geoff: I wish I could agree with you that "this is developing into the make-or-break story for the whole CAGW movement" and that "the future economic and energy policy of the western world depends on the fate of a few tourists and media people stuck in the Antarctic ice". But I fear you're being a uncharacteristically optimistic. Much of the MSM is unsurprisingly trying to bury or sideline what in any other context would be a major story: so far as I'm aware, only the despised Daily Mail (despised that is by our "leaders" and opinion formers) has highlighted the stark irony of what's happening.
It's certainly should help sceptics make the public more aware of the reality of climate science. But I don't see it making any serious impact on the absurd policies being implemented in the UK.
PS: I suppose the MSM's treatment of this story would change if it developed into a tragedy. But, however important the issue, no one (I hope) would wish for that.
The crowdfunding video reveals that they (naturally) weren't unaware of the encroaching ice, but managed to get trapped by it anyway.
I expect sceptics see the CLITANIC as a synonym for the entire alarmist argument. Which is why the boat needs to sink after the dolts and crew have been rescued. Then the MSM couldn't ignore it anymore. We could even get a situation where Greenpreach issues a BBC news article about this being an ecological disaster. Wouldn't that be delicious?
Comment at the Graun by lmxly1:
“... I have heard from friends on board that the captain saw the weather coming and wanted to get out ASAP while the ship was only 2 miles from open water. But the scientists fumbled their gear on return and took much longer, hence this fiasco! And it reminds me of the old Antarctic maxim - Hurry up….or wait!!”
Robin Guenier
Of course I agree that we’re all hoping that this won’t turn into a tragedy. But a helicopter trip on the ice from ship to ship, followed by a barge trip to another ship, with a stopover at an Antarctic base before an eventual return to Australia - all that is going to be at best an ordeal for inexperienced, sometimes quite elderly civilians - at worst, something else. The mainstream media can’t possibly ignore the human interest angle, and the climate change story will either leak out, or it will be obvious that it’s being suppressed.
A scientist on board has already been quoted as saying that he could have done the science just as well in his office in Sidney. The tourists who paid large sums never got near the Antarctic they paid to see. The costs of the rescue operation will be paid for by Australian and British taxpayers/TV licence holders - and the loss-making Guardian.
The papers who ignore the story will be trumped by those who carry it. That’s how the media are suppoosed to work in a free society, and how they rarely have worked on the subject of climate change.
Geoff: you're certainly right about how the media is supposed to work. Let's hope it does. But, as for "the make-or-break story for the whole CAGW movement" - I don't think so.
@ Alan Reed
Someone has suggested using dynamite to free them. I'm not sure. Maybe US artillery would provide a more predictable outcome.
I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
The Ship of Fools debacle is crying out for a public enquiry in Australia over the waste of public money - which could be several million OZ dollars counting the rescue costs - even before any possible total loss of Russian vessel. It looks highly doubtful whether the insurers will pick up this tab, their policies will give them a get-out for the patent folly.
The whole venture was misguided from the outset. And the diversion of Aurora Australis must be damaging to the real research work at the Casey station which it was meant to be re-supplying.
And there ought to be an enquiry about the waste of funds by the BBC. "Experts" like Roger Harrabin must have known beforehand about this jolly - and should have pointed out that the real science concerning Antarctic ice, ie a steady increase for many years now, contradicts the glib objectives of the "expedition". But of course REAL science is not what Harrabin looks at or reports on - because it undermines the BBC Warmist agenda. Plus - isn't the BBC under a duty of care to its employees - was there any formal risk assessment before people and funding was sanctioned ?
Best case - there could be a speedy evacuation of the greenies on board. A worse and maybe more likely case is that high winds and/or poor visibility could prevent or slow down any helicopter operations. Personally, I think a lot of the boneheads should be required to trek onto solid land and then trek eastwards to where Aurora Australis can get near relatively ice-free land.
Let's hope so.
I've been racking my brains, but I can't remember a single occurrence of an unfolding emergency where international journalists were among the potential victims - but restricted themselves to tweeting pictures of passing wildlife and their breakfasts.
E.g. - Building on fire, dozens trapped on top floor including national newspaper reporter who tweets from the scene - "here's a pigeon that just flew past the window.
Or - Village swept away by flash flood, reporter from national broadcaster clutches tree branch as he tweets - "look at the lovely croissant I had for breakfast this morning".
Sadly, the media will only really slip into gear if things begin to go wrong with the rescue.
I'm not an expert, but it seems to me that landing a big 10 ton, twin engined helicopter on sea ice is somewhat risky.
Let's hope no-one gets hurt - but I must confess I wouldn't mind enough scary moments to attract some front page attention.
Professor Turney hanging upside down by one ankle, 100ft above the ice, for a few minutes might do it ;-)
@ Foxgoose Dec 31, 2013 at 10:38 AM
" it seems to me that landing a big 10 ton, twin engined helicopter on sea ice is somewhat risky."
Especially in inclement weather, with poor visibility.
Two years ago, a helicopter from the polar icebreaker Snow Dragon sadly failed.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2011-12/09/c_131297030.htm
Dec 30, 2013 at 8:42 PM | James Evans
And thanks to your link, I read it, too! But what blew my irony meter off the scale was their:
Notwithstanding the NG's back-to the-future "... something is possible ... is not to prove that it happened." Will it ever occur to the NG writers to slightly modify the above so that it reads (somewhat more realistically):
"To say that something is possible, however, is not to prove that it could happen. Climateers™ and their blinded [edit and/or well blinkered] endorsers routinely blur this distinction, making "scientific" claims based on the outcomes of their model creations, recreations and misadventures".
WUWT are helping out by providing weather reports for the climatologists and scientists on board the stricken ship. Perhaps they should have sought their opinion before they sauntered off on their quest.......whatever it was