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« Plimer | Main | Lockwood »
Tuesday
May102011

Svensmark

Q2 Explain regime change. What was it? Metastable states change. Nobody knows why, but well described in literature.

Q1 Chris Hope Judge bus school. What predictions does HS make about ocean heat in next 10-15 years? A: Might see a cooling. If sun is going down, and temps rise then it's not the sun.

Solar effect appears to be large. If exclude solar or regime change, then it makes anthropogenic look much bigger. These effects are not well covered by climate models.

Can effect be seen in climate? Use ocean heat content. Forcings = volcanoes, gcr, anthropogenic and a regime change in 1977. Solar effect ~1Wm-2, compares well with Shaviv. If remove solar effect left with apparent rgime change in 1977. This can be seen in eg tropospheric temps.

Coronal mass ejections - decrease in gcrs at earth - forbush decrease. Is there an atmospheric response? Liquid water in clouds over oceans fall after forbush decrease. Ditto in low clouds etc. Aerosols ditto

Always lots of nucleation centres in atmosphere. Is this right?

Use trace gases in atmosph concentrations. Change amount of ionisation. See if you get more aerosol particles. SKY experiment.

Correlation between low clouds and GCRs - but need mechanism. Ions?

Discussion of LIA and solar. Solar irradiance too small to explain Need amplification mechanism - clouds.

Get correlations between eg stalagmite 18O and solar variability

One particle entering atmosphere generates shower of particles - incl ions which change chemistry

CRs accelerated by solar events - supernovae.

He's older than I thought.

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Reader Comments (12)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/may/09/vince-cable-chris-huhne-carbon-emissions?intcmp=122

Money meets ideology.

May 10, 2011 at 12:25 PM | Unregistered CommenterJustice4Rinka

Not so sure this 'Live Blogging' is working that well, Bish. I keep imagining what a video might look like...I've done some for TED. And edited the results. You know?

May 10, 2011 at 12:34 PM | Unregistered CommenterGixxerboy

Gixxerboy

No live blogging = no information at BH = nothing to complain about in comments...

Better owt that nowt, as dear old grandma used to say.

May 10, 2011 at 1:20 PM | Unregistered CommenterBBD

Woohoo, the sun rises and the Brits get to work on policy.
===========

May 10, 2011 at 1:22 PM | Unregistered Commenterkim

BH

He's older than I thought.

That may in part be the result of being hit over the head with a rolled consensus for the last 20 years.

May 10, 2011 at 3:09 PM | Unregistered CommenterBBD

I knew about the CERN "CLOUD" experiment but I haven't heard about the "SKY" experiment. Whats the deal with SKY?

May 11, 2011 at 9:46 AM | Unregistered CommenterPaul in Sweden

@BBD

You do make me laugh! Those two comments are worth a pint each.

May 11, 2011 at 12:51 PM | Unregistered CommenterGixxerboy

Gixxerboy

Can I have that in writing...

May 11, 2011 at 3:34 PM | Unregistered CommenterBBD

Paul in Sweden:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henrik_Svensmark

May 12, 2011 at 12:01 AM | Unregistered CommenterAdrian

http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2011/EGU2011-10920.pdf

Here is the abstract of Svensmark group extending their 2009 research, hopefully it would be published within several months.

EGU: The effect of coronal mass ejections on cloud microphysics (2011), Martin Bødker Enghoff, Jacob Svensmark, and Henrik Svensmark

Jun 10, 2011 at 4:08 PM | Unregistered Commenterdahuang

An interesting research proposal for verification of Svensmark hypothesis:

http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/1103/1103.4877v1.pdf

Probing the Climatological Impact of a Cosmic Ray-Cloud Connection through Low-Frequency Radio Observations, Nathan Magee & Michael Kavic.

Anyone has comments on this?

Jun 13, 2011 at 4:26 PM | Unregistered Commenterdahuang

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Sep 27, 2011 at 4:33 PM | Unregistered CommenterDavid

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