Bishop Hill Kontradictory Kukla
Jan 1, 2011 Climate: Surface Climatologist George Kukla finds evidence of an impending ice age in 1974:
When Climatologist George J. Kukla of Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory and his wife Helena analyzed satellite weather data for the Northern Hemisphere, they found that the area of the ice and snow cover had suddenly increased by 12% in 1971 and the increase has persisted ever since. Areas of Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic, for example, were once totally free of any snow in summer; now they are covered year round.
Climatologist George Kukla finds evidence for global warming in 1981
They found that the typical summer ice pack had decreased about 35 percent, by 2.5 million square kilometers, or about 1 million square miles from 1973 to 1980. The Antarctic ice cover was also found to be considerably lighter than shown in atlases published in 1957 and 1966 and in the ship reports from the 1930's. This was taken as an indirect measure of higher temperatures.
(H/T Glyn Ferguson)
Reader Comments (13)
Fnaa!
Just following the latest Fad syndrome, hope they have prepared the ground for the forthcoming change to 30 years of decreasing temps or the grants could dry up.
Scientists go with the evidence. There was some evidence of cooling in the 1970s. There was never a consensus that we were heading for another ice age "soon." And even in the 1970s, many researchers were still concerned about the potential for CO2 forced global warming. By the 1980s the evidence was getting very strong that the world would warm significantly because of CO2 emissions and other GHG emissions. By the 1990s a strong consensus was forming that this was indeed the case. The evidence for AGW now is overwhelming. I assume you know this and post such silliness to distract the public.
Mike
I'm sure you've read the following: IPCC Third Assessment Report, Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis: Para 14.2.2.2
In sum, a strategy must recognise what is possible. In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. The most we can expect to achieve is the prediction of the probability distribution of the system's future possible states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions. This reduces climate change to the discernment of significant differences in the statistics of such ensembles. The generation of such model ensembles will require the dedication of greatly increased computer resources and the application of new methods of model diagnosis. Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate is computationally intensive, but such statistical information is essential.
This may be viewed at http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/
No one disputes the physics of increased CO2, but the doubts of overal consequences are all to do with the little irritating details such as convection, clouds and oceans where we have serious problems but you don't seem to. I wonder why.
Max
Mike, you miss the point.
Mike - who was warning of CO2 increases in the 70's? I don't remember anyone. It was all Ice Age stuff.
The evidence for AGW does not exist and the model predictions from the late 80's and 90's are so far adrift they are now embarrassing.
http://www.thegwpf.org/science-news/2133-hansens-computer-vs-the-real-world.html
Even Phil Jones of CRU has admitted that there has been no warming for 15 years, that is why the game is up.
The whole story relies on frightening people with ever wilder tales of doom that turn out to be eco-speak not science.
It is a narrative that has been found out. The ClimateGate emails tell their own story and the cracks get bigger every day.
It will take a while longer to fall completely because too many people have a vested interest in the thing continuing (perhaps you do?).
Interesting that countries that still talk up CO2 (it is a wonderful way to tax the mug) - are selling 100 millions of tons of coal to China. You get more of a feel for where it is all going if you study the "energy" blogs not the climate ones.. Exit strategies are being developed all over the place.
http://www.realclimategate.org/2011/01/happy-new-year-an-ice-age-is-coming/
somethimg that made me smile last night.. proof that the ice age scare had made it into popular culture.....
A bit more on the Kukla story in this interesting 2010 post on the Ice Age by Nigel Calder, with a footnote saying:
'Finally, Kukla tells me in an email, “I have earlier believed that man may be contributing to the warming at least a little bit, but today I am not so sure even about that.” On the policy side, Kukla met the Czech President Vaclav Klaus at Prague Castle a few years ago, and supported him in his scepticism about post-Kyoto measures to “control” climate change.'
http://calderup.wordpress.com/2010/05/14/next-ice-age/#more-782
Kukla! WTF!
Hi Mike you wrote -
QUOTE The evidence for AGW now is overwhelming UNQUOTE
Would you please oblige us by providing the overwhelming evidence.
Thank you
I think Mike is confusing overwhelming evidence with scientific curiosity. But we have already seen from history how scientific consensus can be a barrier to advancement, look at stomach ulcers!
Mailman
The ability to entirely change one's views without a shred of embarrassment is the staple of the hard Green/Left people, to whom reality is a pesky and inconvenient obstruction to them getting what they want.
Mike is really Jo Abbess and I claim my £5.