- Bishop Hill blog - Global warming debate at Oxford

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May242010

Bishop Hill

Global warming debate at Oxford

May 24, 2010

Climate: other

The SPPI blog has a report on a global warming debate from the Oxford Union starring three lords a-leaping - namely Lawson, Leach and Monckton. It sounds like good knockabout stuff...

Lord Monckton, a former science advisor to Margaret Thatcher during her years as Prime Minister of the UK, concluded the case for the proposition. He drew immediate laughter and cheers when he described himself as “Christopher Walter, Third Viscount Monckton of Brenchley, scholar, philanthropist, wit, man about town, and former chairman of the Wines and Spirits Committee of this honourable Society”. At that point his cummerbund came undone. He held it up to the audience and said, “If I asked this House how long this cummerbund is, you might telephone around all the manufacturers and ask them how many cummerbunds they made, and how long each type of cummerbund was, and put the data into a computer model run by a zitty teenager eating too many doughnuts, and the computer would make an expensive guess. Or you could take a tape-measure and” – glaring at the opposition across the despatch-box – “measure it!” [cheers].

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Reader Comments (39)

Very funny! Lord Monckton is as sharp as he is entertaining.

May 24, 2010 at 10:35 PM |

Josh

Excellent! Does this mean we've reached a 'tipping point'?

May 24, 2010 at 11:15 PM |

James P

But if you just measured it, then how could you justify the hundreds of millions of pounds for super computers, staff, trips to Bali etc?

And would the media still worship your words and deeds if all you were doing was reading a thermometer?

I think not.

May 24, 2010 at 11:59 PM |

Fred from Canuckistan

In the debate, Mike Mason - Climate Care - said:
"that Lord Monckton was more peculiar than most"

Who owns Climate Care now:

JPMORGAN - follow the money!!!!!!!

http://www.jpmorganclimatecare.com/about/our-organisation/
The ClimateCare team has been a part of J.P. Morgan's Environmental Markets group since April 2008.
Mike Mason, Managing Director - Innovation
Mike founded Climate Care in 1997 pre-Kyoto and since then the company has become a market leader in the origination, development and retail of voluntary and compliance carbon offsets, pioneering methodologies and project standards in a number of areas and supplying everyone from consumers to some of the world’s largest brands. Mike also founded Biojoule, previously Climate Care’s sister company developing radically new biomass technologie

-----------------------------------
Buy your carbon offset certificate from these guys!!!
http://www.jpmorganclimatecare.com/media/documents/pdf/Example%20Certificate.pdf

May 25, 2010 at 12:16 AM |

barry woods

An high point of my blogging life was when the admirable Mefinney (sp?) asked if I was his lordship. In my dreams but many thinks oh lately, lamentedly, absent opponent!
Not missed, maybe, but missing nonetheless. Strike that last sentence out.
Come back mefinney, you were always a superb protagonist!

May 25, 2010 at 12:19 AM |

royfomr

I do not believe tipping points appear with much frequency. This is only another sign that minds are a-changing, step by tiny step. The forest is coming to Dunsinane.

May 25, 2010 at 12:24 AM |

Hector M.

There's also a longer account over at WUWT now.

May 25, 2010 at 2:29 AM |

artwest

Ooops, just realised that the WUWT posting is a copy of the SPPI blog.

May 25, 2010 at 2:30 AM |

artwest

You have forgotten Lord Delingpole of Blogosphere.

May 25, 2010 at 4:45 AM |

Shub Niggurath

I love our new title!!!!

The Army of Light and Truth.......it has a nice ring to it!

May 25, 2010 at 5:24 AM |

Pete Hayes

I find Lord Monckton a very entertaining speaker. Makes a point and keeps the audience comfortable at the same time unlike some at the Heartland Conference a few days ago where I would have found myself reading the menu rather than listening to the complete presentation of one or two speakers.

May 25, 2010 at 8:27 AM |

martyn

royfomr

I noticed mefinny’s absence, too. Maybe he’s gone away to check some of his more forthright assertions...

May 25, 2010 at 9:02 AM |

James P

Tony Blair has been hired as an adviser on climate change by Californian billionaire Vinod Khosla.

Full story here:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/7762502/Tony-Blair-hired-by-US-billionaire-Vinod-Khosla-for-climate-change-advice.html

A dodgy former PM selling dodgy goods based on dodgy science.

You know you are being conned whenever Tony Blair smells the money.

May 25, 2010 at 9:24 AM |

Mac

James Delingpole's take on the debate is here:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100040527/greenies-the-red-the-dumb-and-the-angry/

May 25, 2010 at 9:40 AM |

Mike Mason (Climate Care): who abused Lord Monckton in the Oxford Union debte

Has a useful tool... Carbon Calculator - on the JPMorgan Climate Care website:

Get you ClimateCare Certificate - I might just buy one to Frame.

http://www.jpmorganclimatecare.com/about/carbon-offsets-explained/

Next time Jeremey Irons (6 homes, 1 castle) preaches about being green,
(or any other celeb, or reporter, activist, politcian, etc)
Put some figures in the Climate Care carbon calculator about their lifestyle compared to yours.

My 12 year old TVR Griffith 500 sports car.
in its TOTAL lifetimes mileage 'emissions' so far.. (well over 350g CO2/km)

Has produced less 'emissions' than a single (one way) trip to Australia by plane..

As I haven't been in a plane (or my family) for 9 years anywhere,
my carbon footprint (if you believe all that) is TINY compared to:

Al Gore's house/private jet, etc
the BBC's Roger Harribans trip to the Heartland conference,
all the politicians/ green activists private jets to climate change conferences (sorry - jollies)
the environment teams globe trotting,
or ANY celeb or activist that preaches, evil sceptic to me...

And I recycle.. care about biodiversity, loss of rainforest, save the whale, etc.

As I haven't visited my family in Australia, surely I can sell this right to emit that I haven't emitted, to someone that needs to offset their emmissions. That should bring several thousands pounds my way ;)

That's how these schemes (scams) work,
oh I can't!
Why not?
Oh, I see,

only the likes of JPMorgan, Al Gore, President Obama (chicago scheme) and bilionaire corporations are allowed to profit from that idea. ;)

Barry Woods

May 25, 2010 at 9:49 AM |

barry woods

Reading that has put the biggest smile on my face!

Thank you!

May 25, 2010 at 10:44 AM |

Ross Hartshorn

Another "tipping point" based on a model. Shameful!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/earth/hi/earth_news/newsid_8700000/8700472.stm

May 25, 2010 at 10:58 AM |

Ross Hartshorn

actually thank you, I just sent this to a couple of websites:

BBC - Polar bears face 'tipping point' due to climate change

Polar bears are all doomed again according to COMPUTER models.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/earth/hi/earth_news/newsid_8700000/8700472.stm

"Climate change will trigger a dramatic and sudden decline in the number of polar bears, a new study has concluded. The research is the first to directly model how changing climate will affect polar bear reproduction and survival."

"Educated guesses
Until now, most studies measuring polar bear survival have relied on a method called "mark and recapture". This involves repeatedly catching polar bears in a population over several years, which is cost and time-intensive. "

"We may not see any substantial effect on polar bear reproduction and survival until some threshold is passed. At that point reproduction and survival will decline dramatically and very rapidly"
---------------------------------------

Far better then, to sit in an office and make a computer model to do it, that is obviously more scientific, and cheaper and accurate, than counting them?

"we MAY NOT see any substantial effect on polar bear reproduction and survival, until some threshold is passed"

ie whilst the numbers of bears may actually be seen (ie by counting them) to increase in the coming years.

They say, the computer model predicts a tipping point sometime in the future, when they will die. So basically they can still scare you, even IF the numbers are increasing,
because the computer model, because their assumptions of the real world says so?

Potty 'pseudo science'

How do they get funding? (oh!, It is cheaper than counting real polar bears)

Anyone like to make the obvious comparisons, to volcanic Ash cloud computer models(met office), AGW computer models, finacial risk (banking), BSE spread computer models, etc,

Of course, as the computer model now says they will be endangered,

This computer projection can now be used as IPCC propaganda to manipulate the emotions of the public and small children (ie at infants school - polar bears are dying because of humans - said my 5 year old daughter) Even as the polar bear numbers may be static or even increasing.

Can I get some funding, to count (to model bee population, for example - climate change) as I sit at my desk, £200,000 - £300,000 should do it. Where do I apply.

Barry

May 25, 2010 at 11:37 AM |

barry woods

On the same theme:

How big is your carbon footprint?
Mike Berners-Lee offers some practical advice on going green. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/7760327/How-big-is-your-carbon-footprint.html?state=target

the comments are fun...

May 25, 2010 at 12:41 PM |

barry woods

re: RH and BW. It looks like we are in for more sightings of Ursus Bogus.

http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/timblair/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/ursus_bogus/

May 25, 2010 at 1:05 PM |

Mac

What is it with climate con-artists and polar bears?

May 25, 2010 at 1:34 PM |

hunter

Pete:

I love our new title!!!!

The Army of Light and Truth.......it has a nice ring to it!

Make that:

The Army of the COLD Light of Truth

May 25, 2010 at 3:00 PM |

O'Geary

Barry Woods

I do hope Mike Berners-Lee isn't closely related to Tim B-L, a man I much admire. Could he be the loony brother..?

May 25, 2010 at 6:37 PM |

James P

Tony Blair has been hired as an adviser on climate change by Californian billionaire Vinod Khosla.

Say what you like but you can't accuse the Right. Hon. Blair of ducking the big challenges. It seem like only yesterday that he brought peace to the Middle East.

May 25, 2010 at 8:14 PM |

anonym

The indecision surrounding President Obama's approach to the BP oil spill may be due to pressure coming from environmental groups. It is beginning to emerge that conflicting advice from these groups may have resulted in delayed intervention by the US government.

May 25, 2010 at 10:00 PM |

Mac

Despite glimmerings of hope, don't forget that the UK government has renamed its energy department 'The Department of Energy and Climate Change':

see http://www.decc.gov.uk/

The whole web site is now devoted to the CO2 belief system.

Given this triumph, apparently the new government are planning on re-branding education, the Department of Education and Fung Shi.

May 25, 2010 at 11:28 PM |

Sadly, I have had to cancel my attempt to climb Mt Everest. Climate change has made it too difficult

May 26, 2010 at 3:38 AM |

GrantB

Barry Woods

Far better then, to sit in an office and make a computer model to do it, that is obviously more scientific, and cheaper and accurate, than counting them?

Jezz, Barry, haven't you see Avatar? When I was working in Silly Con Valley, we called it Computer Graphics. I worked at Silicon Graphics and routinely produced really impressive computer models. Some of my favorites was the T. Rex walking down the stairs at Jurassic Park. They done by Industrial Light and Magic, but they looked so real, they must have been as real as the results other computer models produced.

I mean, because a computer calculated it, it MUST be real -- right? :)

May 26, 2010 at 4:49 AM |

Don Pablo de la Sierra

Just spreading sweetness and light. We endeavour to give satisfaction.
=========================

May 26, 2010 at 4:56 AM |

kim

"Tony Blair has been hired as an adviser on climate change"

Now we know it's a scam!

May 26, 2010 at 10:23 AM |

James P

A bit O/T here, sorry.

I wonder how long before this appears in England. And whether Google will get their hands on the rights to produce Google Thermal View?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/10147218.stm

Calculating your CO2 Emissions from how hot your house looks. I understand the premise, but surely this will be more modeling, and will the other factors of the day be taken into account?

May 26, 2010 at 11:46 AM |

Ross Hartshorn

Interior air quality and convection losses vary inversely.
================

May 26, 2010 at 4:05 PM |

kim

In the airtight house
Radon stalks and knocks on bones.
Is it stuffy here?
=============

May 26, 2010 at 4:07 PM |

kim

Does anyone have any theories on why it is that all the main political parties seem to want to outdo each other on 'combatting climate change' even in the face of clearly declining public interest in the subject?

Seriously, this is something that I struggle with, even though I personally am convinced that AGW is massively overhyped and the proposes responses to it are unrealistic and counter-productive. When tentatively engaging in conversation on this topic with people with no axe to grind , the reason they most often come up with is 'well, there would not be that level of agreement if it was all complete tosh'.

Presumably, even if Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg are all AGW true-believers, some wise people from the Treasury would have a word in their shell-likes and point out the looming energy gap (altruistic self-denial in the name of generations yet unborn not normally being at the forefront of their thoughts). Instead, they and their EU counterparts compete to introduce ever more stringent carbon reduction programmes.

We on the sceptic side can point out the folly of this as much as we like, but the simple question is 'why are they doing it?'

May 26, 2010 at 11:07 PM |

DougieJ

Why are the MP's doing it ?

Because they have been green lobbied to death... For 20 years!!!

They only here about man made climate change from activists, and believe what they are told
ie the latest 'useful idiots' best to get them young..

Young climate campaigners adopt an MPCampaign

UK Youth Climate Coalition aims to keep global warming at the top of the political agenda
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/may/25/youth-climate-adopt-an-mp

You might laugh probably just a few dozen activists, and student volunteers..
but the have disproprotionate amount of lobbying power.

http://www.actoncopenhagen.decc.gov.uk/en/ukaction/youth/youth-climate-coalition
meeting with negotiators - to put the youth view at copenhagen!!!

"The meeting was highly productive both for the UKYD and for DECC. For the Youth Delegation it offered a valuable opportunity to voice their opinions and concerns at a high political level within the UNFCCC and to learn more about the reality of the UK's negotiating position and how this relates to the international climate change debate."

This is all the MP's hear

8 jobs going ( volunteers - cheap students?) who knows, but where is the funding coming from for the organisation)!

http://charityjob.co.uk/Jobs?PartnerId=12194

...'Adopt an MP' Project Coordinator

...International Day of Youth Action on Climate Change' Project Coordinator

..Campaigns Coordinator Officer

..Fundraising Officer
.
...Filmmaker

...Website and Social Media Officer

..Outreach Officer

...Support Officer,

May 27, 2010 at 11:28 AM |

barry woods

No wonder the catastrophic AGW promoters are so desperate to suppress skeptics. When people actually hear the evidence of CAGW intelligently and critically challenged, they see through the hype and fear mongering.

May 27, 2010 at 1:16 PM |

hunter

@DougieJ "We on the sceptic side can point out the folly of this as much as we like, but the simple question is 'why are they doing it?'"

Tax... Pure and simple. Our spendthrift politicos have discovered the Eldorado of tax policy. Taxes can be levied "to save the planet" without any apparent evidence of their effectiveness being required. After all, who's going to complain about being taxed if our very survival as a species is at stake? (end sarcasm).

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